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2 potential Cat 4 Hurricanes barreling in on Hawaii
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bob1



Joined: 27 Apr 1998
Posts: 100
Location: San Carlos, CA

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the input . . .

UAL has issued blanket flight change waivers for the islands and my hotel booking can be moved fee-free. Had cleared the time, and its this last week before my kids start school, so really want to make it out there next week . . . . been 5 WAY TOO LONG years since I've been to Maui.

I guess with air/hotel waivers I can take a "wait and see" approach thru the rest of the week -- hope that Iselle comes and goes Friday with little damage, and Julio tracks away or markedly diminishes (I read that Iselle will churn up cooler water ahead of Julio which might weaken it further). Will be hoping for the best -- for all you local folks, of course, as well.

From what I'm hearing, the best case scenario: I slide in Sat afternoon after Iselle, maybe get a day of fun, then get whacked by what's left of Julio Sunday pm thru Monday, with trades returning by maybe Wed or Thursday . . . .

How long does the turbidity in the shore waters last ( ie. for snorkel/diving)? And what's the"pollution" referenced? Agricultural, ranching and/or sewage run off? Will be staying on South Shore (Makena), so maybe a bit more protected? This is a family resort vacation, as well a sailing vacation.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 4228

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These storms travel very quickly. They are fun to go through as long as things don't get too far out of hand! Good Luck!
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jeff_bennett64



Joined: 13 Jul 2000
Posts: 72
Location: Maui

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:15 pm    Post subject: Central Pacific Hurricane Center Reply with quote

Once a tropical storm is west of 140W, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu takes over tracking and forecasting. Dig into the details at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
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beaglebuddy



Joined: 10 Feb 2012
Posts: 710

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bob1 wrote:


How long does the turbidity in the shore waters last ( ie. for snorkel/diving)? And what's the"pollution" referenced? Agricultural, ranching and/or sewage run off? Will be staying on South Shore (Makena), so maybe a bit more protected? This is a family resort vacation, as well a sailing vacation.

I've been on Kauai 5 years, that is my experience and reference. How long till clear water? Well that all depends, for a typical winter storm about two days or less, however Thanksgiving 2008 it rained 15" in 24 hours, all of Hanalei valley and town was underwater, the bay was wrecked for a week. As the storm slows down and breaks up it could mean more rain as the storm lingers instead of blowing thru and doing damage that way. Up in the mountains it will be raining even more, the rivers turn red/brown with trees and debris including dead animals like pigs and steer that attract sharks. So much tree debris comes down the flooding rivers and floats around for days washing up on beaches. Leptosporosis becomes a real danger. In SF bay brown water is normal but in Hawaii you can get really sick. With no freezing weather everything is always alive with bacteria. With flooding there will be septic and sewage overflow. I think the sewage treatment plant at Kanaha is safe but heading up the coast everyone is on septic which will flow into the sea with any flooding. Generally with winter storms the south shores get way less rain but these storms are coming from the SE instead of NE so the south shores will get really whacked too.
The pollution is from those sources you list but also from dead animals and animal waste, wild pigs, chickens, rats etc... this is where the Lepto comes from. Lots of just garbage too, trash around peoples homes will float away and end up in the ocean.
That leeward side doesn't get much rain at all, quite arid. Dumping all this rain on it will cause a real mess.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 811

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Below is an animation of the trajectory of the 2 hurricanes during the next 4 days as depicted by the GFS model. Other models have slightly different pathways.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com



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sasussman



Joined: 18 Feb 1997
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regarding the question on water quality, once again I agree with beaglebuddy. It really depends on how much rain comes, over what period of time, and where on the island it hits. It's not industrial pollution, but runoff of trash, agricultural products, and animal products. And in heavy flooding human waste is a possibility too. I haven't heard of much leptospirosis here on Maui.

Just to the east of Hoopika is Maliko Gulch, which collects runoff from large areas of Haleakala. In most cases, this water is diverted for sugar cane growth before it hits the ocean. But during heavy rain this doesn't happen, and if you look out at the ocean near it you'll see huge brown areas at its outlet and then heading to the west towards all the north shore windsurf sites (with the trades generally going to the west the surface currents carry the water this direction). In this brown water will be pesticides, herbicides, animal poop (wild, agricultural, and pets). I live in Haiku, and we have horses, goats, chickens, cats, dogs, and sometimes cows, and that's typical for many around here. Their poop will run off into the ocean.

Not to mention the floating branches and other stuff, often slightly submerged so you don't see it, just waiting to snap your fin off.

So the bottom line is I give a few days after anything over a few inches of rain. Use your judgment. If in doubt ask a lifeguard at Hookipa or Kanaha. On the other hand, all the time I see people surfing at Hookipa right after heavy rains. I don't know how many of them get sick, but I don't think they're being too smart. I'd be especially careful if you have open wounds.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3457

PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is predicted for 40 to 60 tomorrow in the paper. The first storm seems like it won't lessen to below hurricane status before it hits Big Island. The second Julio has gained instead of weakening but is still supposed to weaken and likely pass north.
Or not as noted above.
Parks like Hookipa are all closed. The wave are over mast high.
Several guys jumped the fence at Hookipa.
The Park cops were out for the traditional Arresting of the Surfers Ceremony in honor of the wave gods.
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 1800
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few guys out at Ho'okipa kiting right now, looks like they're having a pretty good time. The wind has a bit more north in it than usual, and the kiters are taking advantage of it, no WS'ers out.
http://www.mamasbeachcam.com/

_________________
I don't drink the 'cool' aid, I drink tequila, it's more honest.
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Suba-rude



Joined: 15 Mar 2002
Posts: 334
Location: Outer Richmond District.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the latest. Looks like perfect conditions so far. Hope the winds stay light!!!!


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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3457

PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hurricane Iselle kinda boring in Maui.
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