El Niño and Baja

[windfind]

El Niño and La Niña have a major impact on winter and spring winds and weather in the Gorge, Hawaii, Baja, California. While on "neutral years" all these venues have reliable have more normal weather and wind.

This year looks like there is a chance of a mild to moderate El Niño (details below) but it is instructive to summarize the average weather impact of this possible climatological event.

When full blown El Niño develops in the Pacific the storm track over the USA west coast drops more SOUTH than normal. At the same time the North Pacific High moves much further south leaving low pressure over the N. Pacific. On the average this means:

Southern California: More storms and rain in the winter and has later and weaker NW clearing winds in the spring since the North Pacific High's surface NW winds are too far to the south.

Hawaii: More Kona conditions than normal. But with the North Pacific High further to the south the NE trade winds are less reliable than normal and have a more easterly direction.

Bay Area: About the same as Southern California with perhaps a bit less rain.

Baja: San Carlos, La Ventana and Los Barriles:

San Carlos: Normally dry Baja Norte gets significant rain meaning it can be very difficult to get into or out of San Carlos. And there is a chance of flooding or bridges being washed away.

La Ventana and Los Barriles: The big winds on the east cape are caused in large part by the high pressure that moves into the 4 corners (where all the square states meet) after a storm has exited eastward after hitting California.

In an El Niño year this high pressure in the 4 corners is much less reliable so Los Barriles and La Ventana are less likely to have El Norte winds to combine with their mid teens local sea breezes to bring low to mid 20's wind. In addition the huge swell that you expect in Baja hinges on the long fetch down the Sea of Cortez. And without El Norte winds blowing down the entire length of the Sea of Cortez the swell is smaller.

The Gorge: The Pacific Northwest has less rain/snow than normal. In the spring and summer the wind starts a bit later than normal since it takes longer for the North Pacific High to climb up the coast from the south.

So what are the chances of an El Niño this winter especially in Baja?

This summer has seen lots of evidence of an El Niño developing. Since summer there has been a slowdown in the development of El Niño conditions in the tropics and the odds now are around 65%. The majority of the models indicate weak El Niño conditions for this winter and some suggest that a moderate El Niño could develop.

If there is a weak El Niño then the average frequency of strong wind days may be barely noticeable especially to kiters. With a moderate El Niño you can expect longer calm periods on Baja's East Cape especially at Los Barriles which is more dependent on El Norte winds. While La Ventana has stronger thermal winds so there is often kite action or big sail windsurfing even when rest of Baja's East Cape is near calm.

I will post an El Niño update as more info. comes out.

You can also find lots of Baja information at my Baja Guide:

http://blog.weatherflow.com/baja-guide-by-mike-godsey/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com