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NPH WTH Mike?!

 
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fxop



Joined: 13 Jun 1998
Posts: 202

PostPosted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:41 pm    Post subject: NPH WTH Mike?! Reply with quote

Is the position of the NPH really responsible for messing up our late spring winds and Maui too?

Where is it? Why isn't it where it's supposed to be? It's been out of position the last 4 winters too, the drought and all? Have we gone from a drought pattern where the NPH shunts the lows over the state during winter, to an El Nino pattern where the dang thing is too far north and now the door is open to these stupid summer lows?

If it was winter now would we getting good rain?

WTH?
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 6485
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's most likely a result of the "big blob" in the eastern Pacific.
Read about it here~
http://www.contracostatimes.com/breaking-news/ci_28293176/ocean-investigators-set-their-sights-pacific-ocean-blob

It's very informative, but why is it there? Good question, it's even spurred conferences by climate researchers, as the article states. But given the art of climate research these days, they've yet been able to explain it.

A snippet~
With still so many unknowns, the researchers in La Jolla agreed to meet again this coming fall. Until then, they all have homework: run climate models and dig deeper into data for patterns in weather, ocean chemistry and marine life.

"I don't think that we found the smoking gun at the meeting," Chavez said.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

The North Pacific High is still going like gangbusters but, as fxop noted, in recent years it has often not been in its normal position. Actually almost all the major players in Bay Area winds have made drastic changes in the last 20 years especially the marine layer.

There is no clear reason for these shifts but anytime you put more energy into a system you can expect more variability.

In recent years the upper troughs and upper ridges that control our surface weather have been shooting more northward and more southward worldwide. This means more extreme weather on the average. Since the position of the NPH is impacted by passing upper events the NPH is on the average spending more time far to the north or to the south than was typical years ago.

In the graphic below you can see that the NPH is centered far to the north almost in the Gulf of Alaska today causing the wind near the Bay Area to be NNW-NNE rather than the NW typical of spring and early summer.

In the short term the immediate result of this position of the NPH is the formation of that counter-clockwise spinning eddy west of the Golden Gate. Historically this eddy was much less common than in recent summers when it has sometimes been a daily feature.

In the image below you can see how this position of the NPH causes our normal NW winds to be far from the Bay Area. Meanwhile the NNE winds near the Golden Gate encourage an eddy to form.

Also note how this location of the NPH impact the normal NE trades winds that, as more easterly winds, cannot reliably reach the beaches on Maui.

Historically the Bay Area has 3-4 months of weak to strong spring NW wind along coast. Beyond delighting coast and Peninsula windsurfers/kiters this NW flow produces an upwelling of cold water from the depths. This cold water encourages fog formation and also creates the local high pressure off the coast that helps fuel the thermal winds even after the NPH departs for its summer time home west of the Gorge.

Unless the North Pacific High's surface NW winds return soon the Bay Area summer thermal wind is likely to be impacted by the weaker high pressure off the Golden Gate.

The heat blob in the pacific is probably somehow related to all of this but so far no one has figured out the connections. What is important to note is that that of mass of warm water represents a huge amount of stored heat that normally would be in the atmosphere and that will have impacts on the climate.

Incidentally if you are sailing at Sherman Island later this year you may be in for a treat. One of the Google projects I forecast for will be testing a new version of the flying turbine that is pretty incredible:

https://plus.google.com/u/0/+makani/posts/422aty5iH2j?pid=6153649725367571106&oid=111579908374957776413

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com



North Pacific High Gulf of Alaska .jpg
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fxop



Joined: 13 Jun 1998
Posts: 202

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mike!

Guess I need to get some gear more suited to SW winds.

fxop
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spennie



Joined: 13 Oct 1995
Posts: 975
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aw geeze, I though he was asking about Neil Patrick Harris!
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Spennie the Wind Junkie
www.WindJunkie.net
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Arrgh



Joined: 05 May 1998
Posts: 864
Location: Rio

PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just love NPH, and his cousin Southwest Flo. She's blowing that wind straight up the river, all the way to the (pretty much abandoned) Power Lines.
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