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NOAA: El Nino impacts on Pacific Northwest

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:27 am    Post subject: NOAA: El Nino impacts on Pacific Northwest Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

I just attended a seminar of the possible impacts of El Nino on the Pacific Northwest. The imagery below summarizes the recent weird 2015 winter we had without an El Nino.

Rest of the diagrams summarize what El Nino might bring this winter and spring to the Pacific Northwest.

Climatology is a bit like predicting the stock market. Long term trends are easy to forecast (i.e. I am nearly 100% certain July will warmer than December) but forecasting what will happen a couple of months out is tricky.

This El Nino is especially tricky due to the unprecedented existence of the Pacific Heat Blob separate from the impact of El Nino on the weather. Plus the unrelenting NPH. But so far this has not been a typical fall.

I annotated one of the diagrams to show why Baja, Texas and Hattaras are pretty iffy for windsurfing vacations this year. Maui is normally also negatively impacted by El Nino but the unusually huge fall North Pacific High is still holding station so trade winds may continue.

Baja has lots of great kiting and good if less frequent windsurfing even during an El Nino so it is time to think about warm water, warm wind and big swell this winter. Check out the Baja Guide.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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El Nino 2015.jpg




Last edited by windfind on Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:04 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Mulekick84



Joined: 18 Mar 2006
Posts: 407

PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Donald's people will fix this in three months. They are very very talented!
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jimoakes



Joined: 21 Apr 2006
Posts: 172

PostPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2015 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mike.
Sad news for my friends in Baja, Texas and Hatteras. Maybe the fall and spring will be above average for Gorge sailing if there's any water in the river.
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NOVAAN



Joined: 28 Sep 1994
Posts: 1544

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I decided not to make the long drive to SPI this fall. The wind did not blow. Maybe 3 days out of 30. Not looking very good for a spring trip either. Its nice that you provide detailed info. that allows us to make decisions on where and when to go windsurfing. Thanks a bunch and keep it coming......
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