myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
California Meteorologist Forecasts Return
Goto page Previous  1, 2
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Southwest USA, Hawaii, Mexico
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
ctuna



Joined: 27 Jun 1995
Posts: 1125
Location: Santa Cruz Ca

PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 1:42 pm    Post subject: Are there any or will there be any 3d maps of wind Reply with quote

Are there any or will there be any 3d maps of wind
in the future. It might be nice to get an idea of what
it is doing from that perspective.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Loopless & Richard

loopless wrote:
Hi Mike,
Thanks for your detailed reply.
Attached are two images for the same time today. One from Surfline, one from windalert. They seem quite different to me The Surfline one shows winds from the NW that might indicate a possible good light wind day. The windalert image shows light W wind - that would mean "no chance".


Hi Loopless,

The answer to your first question is easy. Your Surfline image is from the NAM 5km. The one from iwindsurf is from the WRAM 4km. Since each Hi-Res model is initialized at a different time and from a different Low-Res model they often have different forecasts when you zoom in to the level in your images. That is why I look at 5-8 different models when I am forecasting and then partially base my forecast upon the models that are the closest match to the real time satellite/sensor/cam/weather balloon data.

loopless wrote:
Cheap computing power has increased enormously in the last few years. Why are we not running higher resolution models
?

Actually meteorologist keep getting access to ever high res. models. When I first started forecasting for Call of the Wind I was using models around 60 km in resolution. When the MM5 model first came out with 29 km is was amazing since all of sudden there was a hint of marine surges before they arrived. But the supercomputers that run the higher res. models are crazy expensive when you do a while continent. During the America's cup San Diego preliminaries and during the Bay Area Final Weatherflow ran the WRAMS at an incredible 250 meter res. Ben and I first did this for the San Diego event and it was amazingly accurate. But it was expensive and we only did it for the tiny race course.

Incidentally some of you are probably wondering what 4km means in terms of a model resolution. Take a look at the image below which shows how a 200 kilometer res. model would break down the world. In reality the grids you see are 3D and a model forecasts for multiple levels up past the jet stream. Imagine what this graphic would look like it it showed 4 km grids.

loop less wrote:
Why do not the models use feedback from the iWindSurf sensor network to provide better predictions?


It is hard to believe but NOAA and the NWS do not consider sensor data from windsurfing sites as critical information to input into the models. Remember that most windsurfing sites are in local venturis and areas just inland have much weaker wind. So our data would skew the model data for everyone else. That said... we have put a lot of thought into finding a way to modify our presentation of the supercomputer data so it "learns" some rules of thumb from real sensor data. It is not easy!

Richard wrote:
Which Model is represented by the plot labeled QuickLook?


Don't get me started on this one since it is an issue within the company. Briefly: Customers have demanded 5-6 day forecast all on one easy to comprehend table for each site. However the (more accurate) Hi-Res models only go out 24-36 hours. So our compromise is have the first day or so show the Hi-Res model forecast and then the table switches to a lower res. model for rest of the days. This sounds OK but the issue is that the low res model sometimes inaccurately forecasts wind 3-4 days out but as that day approaches the Hi Res more accurately forecasts weaker or stronger winds. This drives customers crazy!

Hope this helps!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



3d model.jpg
 Description:
 Filesize:  129.04 KB
 Viewed:  6923 Time(s)

3d model.jpg


Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
benspikey



Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mike do look forward to the forecasts.

Question where can I get one of these "super computers" to solve differential equations?

Also my CPU is a neural-net processor; a learning computer..
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Yahoo Messenger
windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Ben,

Depending upon your budget I would recommend one of these units:

1. "January 11, 2016 — University of Wyoming researchers will have a new, powerful computational tool with the installation of a new supercomputer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) in Cheyenne. January 11, 2016 — University of Wyoming researchers will have a new, powerful computational tool with the installation of a new supercomputer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) in Cheyenne. The new system, named Cheyenne, will be installed this year at the NWSC and become operational at the beginning of 2017. A media release from NCAR says Cheyenne will be built by Silicon Graphics International Corp. (SGI) in conjunction with centralized file system and data storage components provided by DataDirect Networks (DDN). The SGI high-performance computer will be a 5.34-petaflop system, meaning it can carry out 5.34 quadrillion calculations per second."

Alternatively consider:

2. "Jan. 16, NOAA’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System is now running at record speed, with the capacity to process and analyze earth observations at quadrillions of calculations per second to support weather, water and climate forecast models. This investment to advance the field of meteorology and improve global forecasts secures the U.S. reputation as a world leader in atmospheric and water prediction sciences and services.

The computers — called Luna and Surge — are located at computing centers in Reston, Virginia and Orlando, Florida. They are now running at 2.89 petaflops each for a new total of 5.78 petaflops of operational computing capacity, up from 776 teraflops of processing power last year."


Personally, Ben, I would recommend this latter system since it runs an upgraded version of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR). You can find the 3 km version of the HRRR for surface wind output for the Bay Area on the new iwindsurf. However if you purchased this supercomputer for yourself you could not only solve differential equations you could run it at 10 centimeter resolution with real time updates over your favorite launch site. That way you would have a NOWcast that would tell you in advance how much to sheet in for each jibe.

While neural net processes will be the future of model forecasts for know I would stick to an old fashioned supercomputer.

Let me know if you get one for a good price. As you can see in the image below these units are larger than a lap top. If you are short on space you can get good prices on sail sheds on Amazon.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



ZZ043FF261.jpg
 Description:
 Filesize:  67.75 KB
 Viewed:  6802 Time(s)

ZZ043FF261.jpg




Last edited by windfind on Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:29 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
loopless



Joined: 30 Jun 1997
Posts: 426

PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike,
Again thanks a lot for the interesting feedback. None of us can keep a super computer in our sail shed, but hopefully the prices of cloud computation can come down a bit!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
windward1



Joined: 18 Jun 2000
Posts: 1400

PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WOW......That is a lot of really fast interactions between ones and zeros!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Southwest USA, Hawaii, Mexico All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2
Page 2 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group