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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
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 Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:31 am Post subject: Blog: April, SoCal rocks. The Bay dozes. The Gorge drips. |
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Hi Gang,
This spring so far Southern California has had many strong NW winds days while much of the Bay Area has had less quality NW wind than usual.
You can see one example of this pattern in the animation below comparing the April winds at Leo in Southern California with Waddell the NW wind king.
This blog is Part 1 of 2 blogs covering the story behind this wind pattern.
http://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-southern-california-rocks-the-bay-area-dozes-the-gorge-drips/
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:36 am Post subject: |
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With all the data that you have amassed during the last 20 years it would seem to me that you could put up an hourly probability of wind at each of your stations. You could correlate with surrounding temperature, pressure data and your station data to come up with a superior projection of probability of wind each hour.
What do you think?
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| MalibuGuru wrote: | With all the data that you have amassed during the last 20 years it would seem to me that you could put up an hourly probability of wind at each of your stations. You could correlate with surrounding temperature, pressure data and your station data to come up with a superior projection of probability of wind each hour.
What do you think? |
Hi MalibuGuru,
Damn that makes great common sense and would work if the wind at a site was generated by local events. Unfortunately the wind at each site is mostly generated by multiple events occurring hundreds to thousands of miles away. Local site variables like local topography, nearby pressure gradients, water temperature and land temperature, wind shadows etc. only act to slightly modify the direction and velocity of the wind generated elsewhere.
For example today the North Pacific High locate about 800 miles due west of Southern California is positioned to send strong NW wind near the Southern California coast. While low pressures in the Southern California deserts almost 100 miles to the east and even lower pressure in the 4 corners will act to suck that NW wind over the beaches. Without those variables hundreds of miles away Southern California would not get above the low teens today.
While this Saturday the NPH repositions W. of the Bay Area and pushes an extension into far Northern California which creates AM NE Santa Ana winds in Southern California and weakens the NW wind over the Southern California bight. Common sense would say this would mean no beach wind. But local heating from the Santa Ana should create a pressure gradient in the dozen odd miles from the coast to the inland valleys so at least mid teens wind at Cabrillo.
Hope that makes sense.
Mike
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:48 am Post subject: |
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Makes sense for sure.
But, over the years I've noticed a high degree of correlation between Waddell, Cabrillo Beach, and Leo Carrillo. But, if it's windy at Zuma it's often not that windy at Leo Carrillo. I'm just wondering if we could put together some sort of model that could correlate these an hour ahead of our departure times to give us a stronger probability of success.. ...just for fun!
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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Yes something like that is doable. That type of data could be fed hourly into the cloud servers we use to run the WR-WRF. The problem is that even running the model 3 times daily for basic forecasting maxs out our resources.
Already at times our model runs late when the spot price of cloud computing skyrockets because some big bucks company is gobbling up cloud computing power. Whoever pays the most gets the computing power.
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| I think it'd be worth $25 a year for the 1 or 2 hour heads up.
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