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Ski Resorts are Corona closed
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19732

PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bert, what do you mean by "locked down"? Is the local government actually closing beaches? Are they actually so crowded that closure is the only practical way to maintain a healthy distance from others? Or is that an overreaction?

Rigatoni, are you serious? A total curfew? I can find nothing about it with a quick search on the internet. Does ANY "man on the street" believe that's justified? Just how many thousands of CV deaths have occurred in SF? How many died of influenza or the swine flu, by comparison?

I have to wonder how much/many of these closures are unique to unusually crowded places, events, activities, and times of the week or day. Shutting down Spring break on major resort beaches? Sure. Forbidding activities that don't involve crowds? Makes no sense. Packing the spare bedroom floor to ceiling with TP? Just stupid.

I have zero motivation or intent to miss one windy day this year due to government interference. There are too many good "secret spots" around here where I won't even see another human being within hundreds of feet all day, and even many of the usual sites can be used safely as long as others don't run up and try to chat three feet away. I also have miles of serious, isolated, scenic, challenging hiking contiguous with my own back yard. If it gets to the point my gym is actually closed by our idiot governor, 1) my gym regimen is so intense that even once a week is overtraining and 2) there are many ways to get a helluva workout at home. And sorry, Doc, but I'm not going to fly to LA for our next consultation. That's what telephones are for.

We, as a nation and as individuals, need to strike some national and personal balance between panic and blissful ignorance, especially if this continues for months.

I gotta go see which of my ETFs need a cash infusion while the market is tanked. Too bad it took a pandemic to interrupt both the economy and the market, but I may as well take advantage of it.
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dvCali



Joined: 23 Aug 2007
Posts: 1170

PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
dvCali: "Thank you Mike, very good information. The one additional piece of information that explains why the whole planet is nearing lock down is related to that exponential growth curve."

Good point dvCali,
Epidemiology has long run computer simulations of how epidemics propagate through a population ...


Back in the 90s' I worked a lot on the mathematical modeling of HIV infection. Very different math but the foundations are similar. If you are interested in the math a very good book about modeling infections is "Infection diseases of Humans", R.M. Anderson and R.M.May. Oxford Science publications.
windfind wrote:

The link below is oversimplified but accurate computer simulation was posted by, surprise, surprise, the Washington Post.

New York Times and Washington Post are indeed doing a very good job at publishing accurate information about the pandemic.

windfind wrote:

... we are talking about millions of people not just the 200 in this very simplified simulation.


A virus really does not differentiate between left and right and that is why especially when there are ten of millions of lives at play I find any discussion on those terms unproductive. What is amazing is that the US is the only country on the planet where the main authority, i.e. the White House and as a consequence the Federal Government, is dragging its feet and refusing to acknowledge the situation. It is not because it is a right wing administration. It is because the president is an arrogant and inept ignoramus.

We lost two months, we are still unprepared, let's hope this thing can be kept in check.


Last edited by dvCali on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:49 pm; edited 3 times in total
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jpf18



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 281
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who knows who advocated and succeeded in allowing walks and outdoor exercise around the Bay, for now anyways. My guess - somebody stressed out over how there would be no dogwalking, OMG. At any rate, technically, we still get to go sail, mountainbike and so forth. Personally, I hope I'll be able to sneak a few (solo) runs as long as things are not getting shut down completely. That's a bright spot we get to splurge on for now, with discretion.
OTOH.
Looking at some of the comments here I get the impression the gravity of the situation hasn't sunk in quite yet. I want to encourage everybody to research what's going on in Italy right now. I do not see a reason to believe we weren't as exposed as they are.
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rigatoni



Joined: 25 Feb 1999
Posts: 454

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike Godsey-Those simulations are fantastic and really eye opening. Thank you very much for sharing.

Isobars-The link below is from SF which will give you an idea of what is restricted.

https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs

At this point, everybody including myself is working from home but there are cars and people on the street. I went out to the store this morning and bought paper towels and some food. They were in the process of restocking after everybody was stocking up on supplies the last few days.

I am a little bit late to getting on board with why people are concerned but I get it and some short term inconveniences seem to be a small price to pay to keep our hospitals from getting overrun like they did in other countries.

As far as windsurfing is concerned, lets try to be smart about this. Our sport by nature complies with "social distancing" while on the water and we should try to keep our distance at the launch as best we can (the tequila bar on my tailgate will be closed for the next month).
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jpf18



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 281
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Simple: one person per chair, ...

Not. Vail Resorts tried social distancing Saturday, probably didn't work.
The season's pretty much cancelled now, so it doesn't really matter. It is not clear if the issues in Ischgl (Austria) were a factor in calling off resort operations. Go check out what happened there and how it started the spread of the virus in Iceland and elsewhere. As disappointing it may be, calling the season a wrap was the right call.
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DelCarpenter



Joined: 06 Nov 2008
Posts: 482
Location: Cedar Falls, IA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Effective at noon today, the governor of Iowa (a Republican & a woman) issued a public health disaster declaration closing all restaurants & bars (except for carry out or delivery) and no meetings of 10 or more people. Other businesses temporarily closed by the governorís action include all fitness centers, health clubs, health spas, gyms and aquatic centers; all theaters or other performance venues at which live performances or movies are shown; and all casinos and other facilities conducting pari-mutuel wagering or gaming operations. Social, community, spiritual, religious, recreational, leisure and sporting gatherings and events of more than 10 people are prohibited at all locations and venues, including but not limited to parades, festivals, conventions and fundraisers. Facilities that conduct adult day services or other senior citizen centers must close as well.

I'm pretty sure hoping to reduce the size of a huge increase in health care needs led to the governor's order. All of us hope it works.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1642

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dvCali said: "A virus really does not differentiate between left and right and that is why especially when there are ten of millions of lives at play I find any discussion on those terms unproductive."

Hi dvCali,

No, you are wrong... at least indirectly.

Sure, a virus can not tell if you are more left or right politically. However, viruses do not infect randomly.

Demographic variables like politics, poverty, education and health awareness make certain groups much less likely to listen to or respect scientific warnings.

And a virus is far more likely to infect someone who does not heed those warnings unless they are naturally a near hermit.

For example take a look at the CDC graphic below for the per capita death rate by state for the 2009 H1N1 "Swine Flu" epidemic.

Being from a 5 generation southern military family I don't like the clear conclusion suggested by this graph. But if you look at the vaccination rate etc. etc. by state you see a similar trend. You ignore science at your own peril.

And if you are a politician and don't try to help these people you are a fool.

Mike Godsey



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Last edited by windfind on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:18 pm; edited 5 times in total
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rigatoni



Joined: 25 Feb 1999
Posts: 454

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike-I think you are quoting someone else.
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windsrf



Joined: 01 May 1998
Posts: 408

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike,

Thanks for this info.

Given current CV crisis and its likely impact on US health system I expect some attitudes and approaches may be shifting.

Might also be interesting to overlay data on ratio of per-capita tax dollars sent to DC vs. tax dollars returned, by state.

Thanks again, David
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 14681
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tell me again why it was a good idea to cut the pandemic office? This paper mentions the possibility of 65 million deaths. Ignore science at your own peril.

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/17/covid-19-iran-warns-that-millions-could-be-killed/
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