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Goodwind



Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 248
Location: On water

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you need more proof?

You're most likely to live a long life in Hawaii and California according to the following link.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/02/21/average-life-expectancy-in-the-us-hawaii-top-state-for-a-long-life/39018551/

American Human Development Index rankings
Rank State/Federal District Life Expectancy 2018
1. Hawaii 82.5
2. California 81.5
3. New York 81.3
4. Minnesota 81.0
4. Connecticut 81.0
- Puerto Rico 80.9
6. Massachusetts 80.5
6. New Jersey 80.5
8. Washington 80.4
9. Colorado 80.3
10. Rhode Island 80.1
11. Florida 80.0
12. North Dakota 79.9
13. Nebraska 79.8
14. Arizona 79.8
14. Vermont 79.7
14. Oregon 79.7
17. Utah 79.6
18. Virginia 79.5
18. Iowa 79.5
20. Wisconsin 79.4
20. New Hampshire 79.4
20. Illinois 79.4
23. Idaho 79.3
24. Maryland 79.2
25. Texas 79.1
25. Wyoming 79.1
27. South Dakota 79.0
28. Kansas 78.8
29. Maine 78.7
- United States 78.7
30. Delaware 78.6
31. Montana 78.5
31. District of Columbia 78.5
33. Nevada 78.3
33. Pennsylvania 78.3
33. Alaska 78.3
36. Michigan 78.1
37. North Carolina 78.0
37. New Mexico 78.0
39. Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia 77.7
40. Missouri 77.5
41. Indiana 77.2
42. Ohio 77.1
43. South Carolina 77.0
44. Louisiana 76.2
45. Tennessee 76.1
46. Oklahoma 76.0
47. Arkansas 75.9
48. Alabama 75.3
48. Kentucky 75.3
50. West Virginia 75.0
51. Mississippi 74.8
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dvCali



Joined: 23 Aug 2007
Posts: 1170

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
dvCali said: "A virus really does not differentiate between left and right and that is why especially when there are ten of millions of lives at play I find any discussion on those terms unproductive."

Hi dvCali,

No, you are wrong... at least indirectly.

Sure, a virus can not tell if you are more left or right politically. However, viruses do not infect randomly.

Demographic variables like politics, poverty, education and health awareness make certain groups much less likely to listen to or respect scientific warnings.
...


You know I was referring to individuals political opinions ... of course socio-economic factors influence the diffusion, management, and outcome of any disease, not just viral infections.

Example: after the elder population (with its staggering 15% mortality rate) some of the most at risk populations in California are homeless and agriculture laborers ... that are also some of the least powerful groups politically.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1642

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

I have kept irrationally hoping that the science is wrong about the exponential spread of Covid-19 since it has seemed a more linear increase in recent weeks. Of course, that is what the models predicted. But now there is no denying that it is becoming exponential.

Below is the latest data showing how the disease increased in Italy during the first 26 days compared to how it is increasing in the USA. Remember the models have bell-shaped curve peaking in early summer and this curve only shows the very beginning of the epidemic.

Also, this graph only shows the people actually tested in the USA. Because of the appalling slow start of testing in the USA compared to other countries these stats are low.

Maybe it was not a good idea to close the White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense in 2018. The experts on that Obama era council were tasked to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic. Of course, we saved some money by not having to pay their salaries.

Hopefully, enough people will be social distancing and the curve will be a flat bell. If you have not seen the modeling showing how well distancing works take a look a the sixth graphic at this site: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_source=reddit.com

Mike Godsey



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Last edited by windfind on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
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rigatoni



Joined: 25 Feb 1999
Posts: 454

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike,

I've been sharing that Washington Post article. Interesting comparison between the social distancing measures. People were already changing behavior here in SF almost 2 weeks ago (well before Italy at the same stage). More so this week. Hopefully that allows us to avoid the more drastic measures. A few people have been out on the water the last few days. I think if we can endeavor to keep our distances at the launches, we should be able to continue a little wind chasing. My worry is over reaction on the part of the park services.

One thing about those southern European countries is that they are by nature more social. The kissing and hugging when greeting people. There is a lot more intergenerational interaction there as well. Oh, and people still smoke like chimneys.
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rigatoni



Joined: 25 Feb 1999
Posts: 454

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the statistic that people should be paying attention to is not the number of new cases. A lot of that is because testing is ramping up. Pay attention to death rate and what is going on in the hospitals. That will be a real indicator as to the true spread of the virus.
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windsrf



Joined: 01 May 1998
Posts: 408

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Death rate and attendant hospital impacts are the key criteria. When hospitals are overwhelmed they can't treat and try to save lives. Plus, they need time to obtain protective equipment to help ensure the providers don't also succumb.

Slowing spread may not avoid most of us eventually contracting CV, but given our demographics we will also be more likely to need medical care.
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jpf18



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 281
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rigatoni wrote:
And the statistic that people should be paying attention to is not the number of new cases. A lot of that is because testing is ramping up. Pay attention to death rate and what is going on in the hospitals. That will be a real indicator as to the true spread of the virus.

Which way ever you look at it, this will be a full blown disaster.
Starting last night, Italy also prohibited walking/exercise far from home; what ever "far" means. This likely includes hitting the water or a trail unless you live in walking distance of the launch or trailhead
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jmblaney



Joined: 07 May 1998
Posts: 9

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi All,

I highly encourage you to read this excellent summary of COVID-19.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view


Jeff
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airwave



Joined: 29 Jun 2000
Posts: 381

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For those wondering about launch access. It's my understanding the the County Park on Sherman Island is closed.
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coachg



Joined: 10 Sep 2000
Posts: 2924

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

airwave wrote:
For those wondering about launch access. It's my understanding the the County Park on Sherman Island is closed.


Yes it is. You can still walk in but parking & camping are closed until further notice.

Coachg
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