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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:38 pm    Post subject: Re: forecasts Reply with quote

windbabe wrote:
the Gorge is the most difficult place to predict in the entire USA.


Or maybe not. Try the corner of Fifth and Main, or wherever it was in Albuquerque, where I watched two flags 10-15 feet apart flap HARD for many minutes ... one straight from the east and one straight from the south. I shouldda taken a picture or video of that .... making sure I edited out the nearby building.

Mike \m/
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jingebritsen wrote:
I've come off the White Salmon road headed back to town from a mtn bike ride one or twice where the event site is glassy, and the Hatch is buzzing. Pretty remarkable when one looks left for traffic, then right too also see glassy, then the Hatch off in the distance getting some action!


That's the NORM most years, as in 10-15 days per summer month. I've driven across the HR bridge 200 times over the years with not a whitecap in sight below me, while it's blowing a consistent 4.2 or 4.7 at HatchSwell. That's been MUCH less common the past 3-4 years -- seems like 4-5 days per season -- to the point I've given up on trying to catch dawn patrol from any distance.

Mike \m/
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wooot



Joined: 05 Oct 2002
Posts: 199

PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have not had the same exp. w/ Stu's forcasts, as Temira.. but that is possibly because I pretty much sail way -east.

I would have to agree with whole front/ timing thing regarding spring winds, however.

I does seam that many times the morning , and 11:30 forcasts are "canned" and just put up without actually taking into account whats actually happening. Saw quite a few days where it was blowing 20 plus at 7:00 and the forcast still said 5mph or something.... only to be blowing 25+ at the 11:30 update w/ the focast still calling for 10 at that time.

I'm aware that calling for wind out East (far east) can be a bit tricky.

An observation that I have made over the years is: if it's blowing maybe 15-20 at MaryHill and/or Arlington early and then backs down over the morn. hours. it will typically rebound and end up at maybe 20-25 or better in the afternoon. This almost always true if the gradient is .15-ish in the corridor, especially if there is any "heat gradient" involved (summer) even if the forcats does not call for it.
This is often not taken into account at all in the 11:30 forcast, as far as I can see.

Spring and fall... It's all a crapshoot, you wait to long you might miss it, as cloud clearing and front passage timing have so much "wind influence"

Windpig
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djcovarrubias2



Joined: 29 Jun 2002
Posts: 11

PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree, predicting weather is difficult and there is no point getting all worked up about the misses, which occur less commonly than the forecasts that are helpful.

A more valid criticism, in my mind, is the fact that the meteorologist forecasts stop so early in the season. For $159/yr, I think I should be entitled to receive forecasts until I actually stop windsurfing mid to late November.

DC
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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 2597
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:51 pm    Post subject: Re: forecasts Reply with quote

I'm all for giving the forecasters a break (and free beer too), but I
gotta take exception to the Gorge being the toughest place in the US to
predict. The toughest place to forecast (wind in the Summer) is
Northern Utah. I live in your complex most of the Summer, so
maybe we can discuss it sometime.

-Craig


windbabe wrote:
Hey, give the forecasters a break. This summer was VERY difficult.

Finally, of all the forecasting areas in the U.S., the Pacific Northwest is the most difficult. The most difficult area of the PNW to forecast is the Gorge. Taking this logic to a conclusion, the Gorge is the most difficult place to predict in the entire USA.

Temira
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey, Craig -- what's the water level situation at Willard Bay this year? As scarce as wind up here has been this fall, I was loaded and pointed towards Willard for a couple of moths, watching forecasts there for a 2-3-day blast which (apparently) never happened. I've called and e-mailed and Googled a wide variety of sources over those two months, and finally learned from the dam repair firm recently that there's a lot of lake bottom poking up through the water's surface and it won't be fixed for at least a year. Is it that bad? It can provide excellent sailing in winds from SW to N, well worth a mere day's drive during extended calm spells.

Or should I abandon that idea if the forecasts there are so poor?

Thanks.

Mike \m/
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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 2597
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Mike,

The main leak in the South Dike has been repaired, but there are still
several others keeping the water way down, to the point that
you don't want to be sailing anywhere near any of the dikes
because of the wind shadow (ie don't sail near the South dike on a
South wind, or North Dike, sorta where the marina is, on a North wind).

The rumor is that repairs will be complete, and the lake will fill
back to normal levels by mid summer 09. There were a couple of
2 day blasts that might have given you a smile, but most of the
~12 planable days there in 2008 were 12-20. You can do better
than that at home on a bad day. Kiters loved the 2008 low water
though. Lots of launch area, and lots of shallow water.

So if you've got a nostalgic desire for your old stomping grounds,
I'd wait till Autumn 09.

-Craig

isobars wrote:
Hey, Craig -- what's the water level situation at Willard Bay this year? As scarce as wind up here has been this fall, I was loaded and pointed towards Willard for a couple of moths, watching forecasts there for a 2-3-day blast which (apparently) never happened. I've called and e-mailed and Googled a wide variety of sources over those two months, and finally learned from the dam repair firm recently that there's a lot of lake bottom poking up through the water's surface and it won't be fixed for at least a year. Is it that bad? It can provide excellent sailing in winds from SW to N, well worth a mere day's drive during extended calm spells.

Or should I abandon that idea if the forecasts there are so poor?

Thanks.

Mike \m/
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cgoudie1 wrote:
most of the ~12 planable days there in 2008 were 12-20. You can do better
than that at home on a bad day.

So if you've got a nostalgic desire for your old stomping grounds, I'd wait till Autumn 09.


12 planable days? Who/what killed the wind? We were planing hard on very inefficient 30-pound plastic bobbers (decks awash at standstill) under 3.8 to 6.3 sails 12 afternoons a MONTH in the early '80s. We've sailed 6 days in one June week in very steady 20 mph/6.3 winds all afternoon, and got scores of good evening (4-8 PM) sessions throughout the season.

Fortunately, it's not nostalgia, but simple desperation, that tempted me to cruise down there for fall sailing. "Just" 600 miles each way for 2-3 days of hard wind sounds good when there's nothing for 10-15 days at a time between isolated blasts here in a dead fall.

Mike \m/
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crap. "Everybody" from NOAA to my dog forecast winds averaging 35-45 gusting into the 50s or 60s Wed, so several of us put our lives on hold and burned a WHOLE bunch of dead dinosaurs to go play.

Yeah, right. Early arrivals (I got up at 4:30 and left well before first light, at 61 degrees) got an hour on a 5.2. That was it. So with just 15-25 forecast Thur (today), we went home last night muttering about "Fool me once ...". What a waste of 68 degrees; one guy slogged around comfortably in board shorts and a neoprene shirt.

You can guess the rest of the story: today blew 30-40+ right out of the gate -- probably 50+ at one spot -- with temps absolutely fine for bare hands/feet/head, but we all had to take care of yesterday's postponed bidness and had little faith anyway after Wednesday's fiasco.

The even bigger irony? Wednesday blew dawn-til-dark 10 minutes from home, with probably the best wind and direction we've seen literally this century at home.

What a PITA this sport can be.

Mike
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gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 91

PostPosted: Fri Nov 14, 2008 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, this one did not fit the normal rules of thumb. On Wednesday there was no real cap of the boundary layer. Lots of mountain wave clouds indicating vertical motion. This makes Gorge wind unsteady.

On Thursday the boundary layer was well capped with an inversion between 900 and 750mb (at least in the model initialization over Arlington). This means less vertical motion which I think contributes to the steadier wind.

Now the real question is why it could not be forecast better! If we keep paying attention to these systems maybe we will learn something for next time. I think looking at the model soundings can help here.

George
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