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KGB-NP



Joined: 25 Jul 2001
Posts: 2856

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey, you guys want to take the friendly windsurfing conversation elsewhere? This kind of pleasant exchange isn't welcome here. Don't worry though, someone will find a way to make it political and tear a strip off you both.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17736
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know that people post things on this forum without any interest in understanding the underlying causes--especially if they lie outside of their belief system. Nevertheless, it amuses me to provide some messages from the reality based world. On acidification of the oceans--and perhaps why temperatures are not rising as rapidly as models which didn't consider acidification predicted:

Quote:
Nearly one-third of CO2 emissions due to human activities enters the world’s oceans. By reacting with seawater, CO2 increases the water’s acidity, which may significantly reduce the calcification rate of such marine organisms as corals and mollusks, resulting in the potential loss of ecosystems. The extent to which human activities have raised the surface level of acidity, however, has been difficult to detect on regional scales because it varies naturally from one season and one year to the next, and between regions, and direct observations go back only 30 years.



By combining computer modeling with observations, an international team of scientists concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions, resulting from the influence of human beings, over the last 100 to 200 years have already raised ocean acidity far beyond the range of natural variations. The study is published in the January 22, 2012 online issue of Nature Climate Change.



The team of climate modelers, marine conservationists, ocean chemists, biologists and ecologists, led by Tobias Friedrich and Axel Timmermann at the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, came to their conclusions by using Earth system models that simulate climate and ocean conditions 21,000 years back in time, to the Last Glacial Maximum, and forward in time to the end of the 21st century. In their models, they studied changes in the saturation level of aragonite (a form of calcium carbonate) typically used to measure ocean acidification. As acidity of seawater rises, the saturation level of aragonite drops. Their models captured the current observed seasonal and annual variations in this quantity in several key coral reef regions.



Today’s levels of aragonite saturation in these locations have already dropped five times below the pre-industrial range of natural variability. For example, if the yearly cycle in aragonite saturation varied between 4.7 and 4.8, it varies now between 4.2 and 4.3, which – based on another recent study – may translate into a decrease in overall calcification rates of corals and other aragonite shell-forming organisms by 15%. Given the continued human use of fossil fuels, the saturation levels will drop further, potentially reducing calcification rates of some marine organisms by more than 40% of their pre-industrial values within the next 90 years.

“Any significant drop below the minimum level of aragonite to which the organisms have been exposed to for thousands of years and have successfully adapted will very likely stress them and their associated ecosystems,” said lead author Friedrich.

“In some regions, the man-made rate of change in ocean acidity since the Industrial Revolution is hundred times greater than the natural rate of change between the Last Glacial Maximum and pre-industrial times,” emphasized Friedrich. “When Earth started to warm 17,000 years ago, terminating the last glacial period, atmospheric CO2 levels rose from 190 parts per million (ppm) to 280 ppm over 6,000 years. Marine ecosystems had ample time to adjust. Now, for a similar rise in CO2 concentration to the present level of 392 ppm, the adjustment time is reduced to only 100 – 200 years.”

On a global scale, coral reefs are currently found in places where open-ocean aragonite saturation reaches levels of 3.5 or higher. Such conditions exist today in about 50% of the ocean – mostly in the tropics. By end of the 21st century this fraction is projected to be less than 5%. The Hawaiian Islands, which sit just on the northern edge of the tropics, will be one of the first to feel the impact.
http://manoa.hawaii.edu/news/article.php?aId=4880

On returning kelp beds in Southern California. This, to be sure, has nothing to do with rising acidification, which threatens reefs. Instead, the reasons for increased kelp are 1) cleaner water through better treatment of wastewater (there was a working hypothesis that nutrients from poorly treated wastewater sustained a population of sea urchins that in turn fed on kelp holdfasts); 2) active reductions in sea urchin populations--squash the suckers; 3) restoration efforts. See http://www.cacoastkeeper.org/document/final-kelp-project-report.pdf
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KGB-NP



Joined: 25 Jul 2001
Posts: 2856

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know that people post things on this forum because they love to it when people are at odds with one another, and anything they can do to create division amongst people the happier they are.
I wished that this statement wasn't reality based but since it seems that this is what some thrive upon.

Dude,
We get it. You're right, the world is going to hell in a hand basket and humans are responsible for that. You plan on whipping this dead horse much longer?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17736
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dude--try reality. Try substance. or post nonsense and get what you expect from me.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac

The dude is right. We should all just stop worrying about it and go sailing. It'll all work out, or not, who cares? This is too confusing. I'm gonna jump in my SUV and drive around until I clear my head.
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KGB-NP



Joined: 25 Jul 2001
Posts: 2856

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac,
There is never a mistake in what to expect from you.


Have fun sailing. I wish I was going too. Perhaps while you're out there you can find some way of making a difference to what you are so concerned about. I'm sure that whatever it might be will certainly be more productive than contributing to the 220 pages of horse beating displayed here.

Mac,
If it makes you feel better, I will agree that you are right. How will you be proactive about this issue?
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ignore the buffoons!

Quote; ...'Anthropogenic CO2 emissions, resulting from the influence of human beings, over the last 100 to 200 years have already raised ocean acidity FAR BEYOND the range of natural variation.'

This analysis is ONLY from the end of the last ice-age to today, a period far from typical of earths 500 million year plus geological history.

I doubt todays climate is as extreme as that of the Carboniferous Period, which, in its 100 million year span (or so) went from highest ever atmospheric oxygen levels, to near catastrophic collapse and extinction of many living species, both on land, and in the seas.

My 'old' geological notes and text books always claimed that CO2 levels reached a very high level. Has modern research contradicted that? (I don't keep up as I should nowadays -- too many other fish to fry, and time (AH! Time. What IS it??) is running out! Sad
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9110
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tesla scored the highest safety rating EVER in the history of the automobile industry. The car is a dream. And guess what? You can't buy one in Texas...I wonder why???? Hint: its not because they dont play by the same rules as other auto companies.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17736
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RR--feel free to jump in and scold, without displaying understanding. I suggested that NW30 might want to look at some of the information about ocean acidification before he concluded that Ted Danson was wrong. Bard jumps in and says that there are no problems because kelp is growing. It is beyond funny how little understanding of oceanography and contamination resides in the community that sails in the ocean! I've worked on these issues--and the solutions that make it possible for people to sail in Southern California without worrying about water pollution--for decades. But the attacks on regulation threaten the progress that we have made.

So I post a link that is on topic--global warming and CO2 emissions--and you scold. Dude. Ocean acidification is slowing down global warming but threatening the health of the oceans. Comment on the facts, or complain about my tone. But don't be surprised when I respond rudely to your rude postings. Especially when you jump into a response to NW30.

GT--CO2 levels were astronomically higher in the days of the dinosaurs. Is that the conservatives strategy to regain political hegemony
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KGB-NP



Joined: 25 Jul 2001
Posts: 2856

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac,
Have you ever heard the expression, "you're always selling something"? In this case you're selling us on your information / views / cause. I'm not even disputing your information, but man you are a freaking horrible salesman!
I'm self employed and my livelihood depends on my ability to sell, and quite frankly I'm awesome at selling and delivering my services. That would not be the case though if I was confrontational, insulting, conscending, and arrogant in the way I dealt with a potential client or the people I employ. This might be some food for thought for you. You know the product but your approach is so darn ineffective.
This is what I am addressing. It is obvious you understand that but continue with the same horrible approach. In sales it is easy for people to like you if you're sincere, and honest. If you want to sell us on your ideals then adjust the approach or don't be surprised when people tug at your strings because they know they can get a reaction.
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