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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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 Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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GT said:
| Quote: | | So forgive me if I don't share your concern that global warming is the greatest crisis facing us since (The mythical) Noah's Ark carryon. My fear is that overpopulation (still out of control) will inevitably lead to catastrophy. i.e. nuclear conflict over disappearing natural resources. |
Perhaps I can explain how many see this slow-moving change as the greatest threat to world security of all time. I absolutely agree with you that it is coupled with rapid population growth. But here's how the reasoning goes:
1. Climate change is a partial cause for an enormous wave of refugees currently on the move in the world. As you have pointed out, those refugees have unsettled politics as usual throughout Europe, and are a factor in the civil war in Syria, which is sending refugees out from the Middle East. A few sources to ponder:
Start with a Time article that is specific to climate change in Syria and the current tide of immigrants: http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/
From the Smithsonian, tying the drought to the civil war:
| Quote: | In Syria, a devastating drought beginning in 2006 forced many farmers to abandon their fields and migrate to urban centers. There’s some evidence that the migration fueled the civil war there, in which 80,000 people have died. “You had a lot of angry, unemployed men helping to trigger a revolution,” says Aaron Wolf, a water management expert at Oregon State University, who frequently visits the Middle East.
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Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/is-a-lack-of-water-to-blame-for-the-conflict-in-syria-72513729/#BvqpmAc4mkcrAugL.99
The problems of drought are being compounded by competition for water supplies, for example the efforts of Turkey to build reservoirs that would deplete downstream water supply.
The UN refugee agency--which might know something about the scope of the problem--estimates the number of climate change refugees at 22.5 million since 2009. http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/climate-change-and-disasters.html
Now I am not arguing that all of the refugees are the result of climate change, or that drought does not occur independently of climate change. But all of the evidence, including detailed evidence on California's record drought, shows that climate change has increased both the severity and frequency of droughts--and floods.
2. Turning to floods, contemplate the implications of sea level rise on world unrest. In the US, according to the National Geographic http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/160314-rising-seas-US-climate-flooding-florida/ more than 13 million people are at risk under the still relatively modest projections for 2100. (1.8 meters of rise) Throughout the world the threat is on the order of 150 million people, with 1/3 of that in China. We are trying to grapple in California and in the Bay area with adapting to sea level rise, but the challenges are profound. We will get no help from the insurance industry. They are well aware of the risks--so their insurance terms are short, generally a year. As levels rise and the potential for claims increases, they will abandon the market.
It is fairly clear that we could respond to sea level rises of 2 to 3 feet over the next 40 or 50 years without destroying the real estate market and/or the confidence of investors. But the amount of public investment that supports the economy--roads, seaports, wastewater collection and treatment systems, water supply systems, energy distribution networks--is staggering. Certainly these assets and the local economies of regions at risk will usually support adaptation. But trying to establish a secure future scenario that will allow bonding of adaptation is a daunting challenge.
The US, and most of Europe, have the assets to adapt at least until 2100 if they can find the political will. But the disruption in the rest of the world, with five to ten times as many people displaced, will destroy what political equanimity we have now. The troubles in Syria will look like a family reunion compared to what faces us.
So put your head in the sand if you will, or put your hope in Russian scientists that still haven't submitted their work to peer review. But at least have some conception of the risks. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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Mac. I would have thought the growing over population of these critical areas, combined with ALWAYS limited water supplies (since Biblical times) compounded with war , and the intolerance of religious fundamentalism to keep them locked into Middle Ages crushing freedom and the human spirit, was cause enough without trying to tie in global warming, or rising sea levels, but nice try!
The fact remains that all of the refugees, with countless tides of millions more to come, are primarily seeking that freedom in Europe. Nobody has a practical solution to the problem, and our countries simply cannot absorb unlimited immigration without end. It seems to me that the rise of aggressive religious fundamentalism (Islam, of course) is in danger of either dragging the whole world into another dark age, or resulting in all out war.
If you have a workable solution to prevent what seems to me to be the obvious, I'd like to hear it?
Incidentally, a survey conducted in our country, of Muslim communities raises some worrying facts. Something like 45% of Muslims surveyed claim that it was either America, or the Jews who bombed the World Trade Centre. i.e. nothing to do with Islamic extremism, which a very large percentage of them deny even exists! Many of Muslim youngsters are taught these beliefs in their Islamic Faith Schools!
Last edited by GURGLETROUSERS on Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:20 am; edited 2 times in total |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Apologies for having to keep editing. Another obscure computer problem. It seems to have a mind of its own. Will have to go off line and have it sorted. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| As I said, population growth makes it worse. But perhaps half of those on the move are on the move because of climate change, and it will get much worse. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:06 am Post subject: |
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Before sending computer off for de-bugging, can I make a suggestion to help solve the mass migration from the Middle East crisis?
Density of population figures, per sq mile, ENGLAND (not counting the uninhabitable large areas of Scotland) 1025 people per sq. mile, and the U.S.A. only 85.6 people per sq. mile (2016 figures) ,
Therefore, if we are expected to take in say, another 4 million refugees (don't want to be accused of bigotry, racism, or worse), shouldn't the U.S.A. take in an equivalent loading of about 48 million? (You have the space, and the wealth.)
Wouldn't that solve the problem, instead of just moralising?? |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:22 am Post subject: |
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mac said: | Quote: | | As I said, population growth makes it worse. But perhaps half of those on the move are on the move because of climate change, and it will get much worse. |
Interesting conjecture, but this one you will have to back up to maintain any credibility.
I wonder if the 11 million illegals from the south are here because they got too hot or to hungry and thirsty because of their home climate? |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:35 am Post subject: |
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Did either of you notice the harrowing violence in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Unleashed by the invasion of Iraq, the de-baathification of the Iraq military, and Bush's Secretary of Defense not being prepared for an insurgency? The story of immigration over the last 3 centuries has been driven by violence or oppression making continued living in your culture impossible.
There are multiple academic studies that show that culture is a strong glue that binds people to their existing communities unless they have a talent that allows them to rise far, or unless living conditions become completely intolerable. 6.6 million have been displaced by the Syrian conflict, most of them remain somewhere in the Middle East--but they have destabilized multiple governments.
Techno--I gave citations--did you read them? Start with the Time article, which is specific to Europe. Here is a nice discussion about the various factors: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/how-does-climate-change-affect-migration/
The drivers of the present, accelerating into the future, are sea level rise that makes it impossible to stay, and increased heating and reduced precipitation in the interior, which makes subsistence agriculture impossible and irrigated agriculture much more difficult. |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:57 am Post subject: |
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Mac,
At the end of the article you posted:
| Quote: | Conclusions
In this column we have focused on the potential impact of growing average temperatures on rural-urban and international migration. We found that in very poor countries, warming implies less emigration. Rural populations may be stuck in deeper poverty with fewer resources to migrate. In contrast, in countries where income is not as low, lower agricultural productivity increases the incentives to migrate, producing higher emigration rates. Through these different responses temperature changes may contribute to a divergence of income and opportunities between very poor and middle-income countries. Finally, a future of increased migrations to Europe or to the US driven by global warming is not a scenario supported by our analysis. |
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nw30
Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 6485
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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Funny thing, for years now we've been seeing all those refugees coming across the boarders of Europe from the middle east, and yes, we do see some of the help coming in the form of handing out bottles of water, and we've also heard from many of them as to why they are fleeing.
I have never heard any of them say it's because we are running out of water, or that it's because it's too hot, all we ever hear is ISIS, war, and terror.
But as we've heard the esteemed mayor of Chicago say, "never let a good crisis go to waste", meaning take advantage of it to drive some sort of agenda whether is related or not.
I don't care what kind of sources that mac tries to show, they've all been shown to have a bias that goes back a long ways, the Smithsonian, NatGeo, Time magazine, they are all the same when it comes to global warming. I'm actually surprised that he didn't come up with the Rolling Stone as a source as well, one of his favorites.
But tools never quit, right mac? |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| techno900 wrote: | Mac,
At the end of the article you posted:
| Quote: | Conclusions
In this column we have focused on the potential impact of growing average temperatures on rural-urban and international migration. We found that in very poor countries, warming implies less emigration. Rural populations may be stuck in deeper poverty with fewer resources to migrate. In contrast, in countries where income is not as low, lower agricultural productivity increases the incentives to migrate, producing higher emigration rates. Through these different responses temperature changes may contribute to a divergence of income and opportunities between very poor and middle-income countries. Finally, a future of increased migrations to Europe or to the US driven by global warming is not a scenario supported by our analysis. |
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Don't take the quote out of context. It says immigration to Europe and the United States. Several of the articles conclude that temperature related migration is mostly fairly local. In Syria it started by moving to the cities, where there weren't enough jobs. The primary driver towards Europe is the violence in the Middle East--but most of the migrants stay somewhere in the Middle East.
We are fools--and NW is proud to be one--if we think that the disruption of stability in populations in other countries does not threaten us. |
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