Wheres my Spring?

[beallmd]

Yes it sucks. Enjoyed Gregor's post, looks like you're back in your usual form;

WELCOME TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 12KNOT RIPPING EPIC SUPER DUPER ANKLE HIGH MUSH PUFTER KOOK SCOAM SESION 2010!

Made me laugh!

[clebeck]

Thanks for the insight Mike! Can you say anything about how this pattern is likely to affect the Bay area summer season? Also, any guess as to when shift from spring / North Pacific High to summer / thermals can be expected this year?

[windfind]

The Bay Area summer thermal winds are created in part by a huge pool of cold water that develops west of Central California coast in the spring. In normal years the non stop NW wind at the ocean buoys blows the cool water at the surface away from our coast.

In a process known as upwelling very cold water from the ocean depths comes up to replace this departed surface water. In turn this cold water cools the surface air west of Central California coast creating a local thermal high pressure zone. It is the pressure gradient from this local high pressure area and the thermal low in the Central Valley that is critical for strong summer winds especially north of the Bay Bridge.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

In theory this means weaker winds in much of the Bay Area. However in many years the NW winds finally really crank up in May and June and still manage to create enough upwelling to save the summer season. So the next 6 weeks is critical. We need to get enough NW wind to create the upwelling to produce a deep marine layer and strong summer thermal winds.

[clebeck]

Thank you very much for that information Mike! Very helpful. Let's all pray the next 6 weeks. What are your expectations for The Gorge this year? How is El Nino expected to mess with the season up there?

[johnl]

For those of you who have gotten in the water this spring be thankful. If it wasn't for Margarita I would have ZERO sailing days this spring. It seems my days off = rain. Or if no rain, absolutely no wind. I'm off this Sat/Sun and look at the forecast. Dismal once again.....

[windfind]

Basically having the storm track so far south is delaying the ramp up of Gorge winds. But for most sailors the season does not start until later in the Spring.

Mike G.
iwindsurf.com

[chophop]

I read that forecasters are projecting a La Nina for next Winter; is that the consensus?

[windfind]

Hi Chophop.

Short answer to your question. La Nina means stronger average winds for the west coast. There is pretty good evidence that an La Nina is slowly developing.

Long answer:

El Nino and La Nina are actually rival partners in the larger scale climate phenomena knows as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. We are in the El Niño phase now which for California means a more southern storm track, later season storms and a North Pacific High often distant from the coast. Hence the lack of normal NW winds until May/June.

Often, at least in past decades, an El Niño is followed by a La Nina pattern as the ENSO cycles through the years. So far empirical signs suggest an La Nina for next year although the models are ambiguous.

What does La Nina mean, in theory, for winds?

The average storm tracks are more northerly during a La Nina and the North Pacific High's surface NW winds in the spring are closer to the coast and the ocean is colder than average. For California stronger spring NW winds means stronger upwelling adding to the cold water mass. This sets up conditions for a deeper marine layer in the summer and a stronger pressure gradient for summer thermal winds..... in theory. In reality La Nina is often capricious and you have to look at the averages to note the difference above.

In Baja having the storm track far north is not ideal for developing the 4 corners high pressure area that is critical for powerful El Norte winds.

Meanwhile Hawaii has, on the average, stronger trade winds.

The Gorge should have more nuclear days than last year as the North Pacific High, after departing from California waters, sets up west of the Pacific Northwest increasing the pressure gradient.

Mike Godsey

[SWE106]

If you're as lucky as Gerrit, some good days were to be had this early spring so far. But indeed it has been lack luster due to the continuous pumping of (often weak) winter storms. Swells have indeed been chunky- hacky low quality in my opinion and have cost me two masts already... HAHAHA.

These continuous winter storms are simply because surface water temps are higher than "normal" (what is normal???) due to El Nino, hence more moist can be sucked up by the atmosphere, which means more energy transfer.

The latest El Nino forecast can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf, which can be summarized into: El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Nobody knows what the future will bring; but I think that we'll transition to a normal (thermal-wind-driven) summer in the bay and that the coast will be hit and miss (check the forecast for next week: seems like some windy days are on their way), and we may get a killer autumn instead!?

So get what you can, enjoy those days is all we can do for now. Planing 5.3 or planing 4.7 doesn't really mater; your still planing ya!

[rpaillon]

Hey Guys:

Haven't you noticed? There are lots of lovely wild flowers on the hills.

Rick