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Global climate change question - non religious.
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starik333



Joined: 19 Aug 2000
Posts: 223
Location: Philly

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:41 am    Post subject: Global climate change question - non religious. Reply with quote

Already few years in row we observe lesser wind on East Cost. I guess it is new reality but Is there place that gain winds from global climate change? Are there new warm windy venues for windsurfing?
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ramps



Joined: 07 May 2000
Posts: 63

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You cannot conclude anything about climate in just a few years or even a couple of decades in a single location.
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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 1304
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 10:11 am    Post subject: Re: Global climate change question - non religious. Reply with quote

The Gorge has been windier and warmer than usual this Spring.

;*)

-Craig

starik333 wrote:
Already few years in row we observe lesser wind on East Cost. I guess it is new reality but Is there place that gain winds from global climate change? Are there new warm windy venues for windsurfing?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14454

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree, but regional pattern shifts do occur for seasons or even a few years at a time. Many years and many places show distinct enduring trends, for better or worse. The PacNW has had extremely mild winters for a few years now, the Bay Area and even Maui can get lame summers, Gorge Dawn Patrol* has dropped by 90% for the last decade or so (we can only hope yesterday indicates a change), the Texas coast can change dramatically year to year, and apparently the east coast has great years and relatively bad years. It's called Mother Nature, and She Happens.

But just as surely as such a trend becomes clear, it changes ... or not. Given that "they" can't forecast today's wind fer crap, neither "they" nor us peons can forecast a whole season well enough to warrant moving or making big/expensive plans. With few exceptions, a season or even a mere week remains the same old crapshoot.

* In my personal opinion for several reasons, Dawn Patrol virtually makes or breaks central Gorge sailing. Now that it's a rare and often unpredictable occurrence and I can't get there unless it's reliably forecast in advance, I catch very few of the handful that still occur. Just as you are implying, I've considered shifting my focus based on trends lasting up to several seasons and have often made the drive based on forecasts, but almost every time I do so, it bites me in the butt. I don't know why the same gamble would be any different for you East Coasties; how much do you want to gamble on major trips or relocation? And how vital is wind to you on a windsurfing vacation?

If you find the new paradigm you seek, and if fishing or drinking is an acceptable substitute for wind, go for it. No, don't. Heck, throw darts. Or not. Just as many days turn out vastly worse or better than expected, so do many seasons.

But religion or politics aside, don't bet much on global warming ... or cooling ... or status quo.
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d0uglass



Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 1088
Location: Bonita Springs, Florida

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The poles are warming faster than the equatorial latitudes. That might reduce the latitudinal pressure-temperature gradients that drive large scale wind patterns like the tropical tradewinds and the mid latitude westerlies. On the other hand, the frequency and severity of storms is supposed to increase. So maybe we'll see less dependable winds, but more extreme wind events. That's just lay speculation, though. I'm not a climatologist or anything.
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bred2shred



Joined: 02 May 2000
Posts: 665
Location: Jersey Shore

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:27 am    Post subject: Re: Global climate change question - non religious. Reply with quote

starik333 wrote:
Already few years in row we observe lesser wind on East Cost. I guess it is new reality


Lots of people have been saying this (less wind on the east coast), but I really tend to wonder if this statement is based off of opinion or hard data. In many cases, I think a lot of it has to do with people's other commitments getting in the way of windsurfing or the "remember when" syndrome. My memory from 10+ years ago is numerous days where we would go to the launch on marginal days where people would be sitting around waiting for wind. I don't see much of that anymore. With today's improved gear and better wind reporting and forecasting, we may make fewer trips to the windsurfing beach, but there tend to be significantly fewer skunked days.

Wind hotline/iWindsurf used to present historic wind data in the New England Windsurf Journal, I wonder if they still do that. I also agree with the prior poster that a few down years are certainly not indicative of a permanent climate change.

sm
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14454

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

d0uglass wrote:
maybe we'll see less dependable winds, but more extreme wind events. That's just lay speculation, though. I'm not a climatologist or anything.

OTOH, that describes last year's Gorge season to a capital T, based on several metrics, with this year generally resembling that remark so far.
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btbill



Joined: 05 Jun 2002
Posts: 218

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Less wind....? Come to Hatteras, its been the windiest we have seen in years all Spring, summer, and Fall! Only thing lacking, at least during summer, has been surf over past few years. Surf is typically smaller in summer but not Lake Atlantic like it has been in recent years.

though on the flip side, less wind = SUP sailing!
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spennie



Joined: 13 Oct 1995
Posts: 852
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've had a Hell of a time trying to forecast the wind for Isabella. When I started doing it about 4 years ago I was hitting something like 87% of the time; Now I would guess it's more like 70%. Seems like here on the Left Coast it's getting weirder, with computer models jumping all over the place from day to day.

Anybody else think the Eastern Pacific High is more north than usual? Temira?

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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3519

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was windy all winter in Maui during the calmest months.
Last year too. Very unusual.
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