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Video: Sweating bullets: Strong NW wind today?

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:07 am    Post subject: Video: Sweating bullets: Strong NW wind today? Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Glad I am not forecasting for the Bay Area today. As you can see Mark is forecasting strong NW winds later this afternoon. But...WTF... the ocean buoys are all seeing NE wind this morning at 8PM!!! Gospel says the ocean buoys show strong NW wind prior to NW winds hitting the Bay Area. So let's look at things from Mark's perspective:

As you can see in the first graphic there is a huge North Pacific High out in the pacific. So predawn Maui is already seeing building Trade Winds and the crew at San Carlos, Baja are getting ready for another epic day.

But things are tricky for the Bay Area. Look carefully at the first image and you can see a tiny spiral SW of the Bay Area.

Now drop down to the video and notice the North Pacific High's surface NW winds just west of the ocean buoys. But inside of the ocean buoys notice the counter-clockwise winds . These are being created by a tiny low pressure system left over from the recent storm. This is creating weak NE winds inside the Bay this morning. But more importantly this low pressure is blocking the strong NW winds.

Until that low pressure departs eastward we will not see any NW clearing winds in the Bay Area. Why is Mark sweating bullets? Because the majority of the models have that low pressure lingering today so the Bay Area only sees weak winds. However the higher resolution MM5 and especially the WRAMS have the low pressure departing and upper teens to low 20's wind invading parts of the bay.

Generally higher resolution models are more accurate. But they have a flaw. By focusing the computer power on a smaller area they may lose track of events just beyond their region. So in this case they may not be factoring in the tiny low pressure system.

If I were forecasting today I would take the same gamble Mark is taking. So let's watch the ocean buoys in the next few hours and see if they turn from NE to NW per Mark's forecast. And if they do plan on hitting the water.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com



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SwellRipper



Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 193
Location: Channel Marker 11

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject: Tiny low Reply with quote

Yes, move along tiny low, I want to sail today!
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Carve the face!
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sailtildark



Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tiny low moving out now - bodega marine lab clocking around to the west!!
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:16 pm    Post subject: Noon Update Reply with quote

Gang,

In the image below from 11:45AM you can see that the center of the tiny low is now well south of the Bay Area. But we are still in the edge of the easterly winds from the low.

Notice the strong NW wind west of the low. It will be a race with the clock for that low to eject to the SE and the NW winds to get into the Bay.

Say 60% chance of a win!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com



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prevett



Joined: 25 Jun 1997
Posts: 65

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Mike,

Are these cool streak-line wind animations available real-time on the web somewhere?

Bob
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sailtildark



Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-133.06,37.70,1451
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi prevett,

Here is the link to the home page:

http://earth.nullschool.net

Be aware this page is NOT a forecast tool for the Bay Area. For example now at 2 PM this sites streamlines have ENE winds throughout the Bay Area even though the sensors at this time are showing actually seeing NW wind.

This is because this pages streamlines are based upon the old low resolution GFS model which barely sees Bay Area topography. So you are not seeing reality but rather a low rez model output.

So the page is a fun way of visualizing the overall MODELED wind pattern in the pacific and elsewhere. So you can see at a glance where storm winds and the North Pacific High's surface NW winds are relative to California. But forget it for visualizing the flow through the gaps in the coast range that funnel Bay Area winds.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
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brettn



Joined: 22 Nov 2000
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This seems like the right thread in which to pop the question...

In Bellingham, WA, and have a camper and a week. Would like to get some windy waves, starting about 4/9 through about 4/16. Any predictions on if I can score at Pistol River, or am I better off staying on I-5 til wine country, or do I need to get south of San Francisco, like Waddell?

Anyone's 2 cents appreciated.
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