View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1899
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:07 am Post subject: Video: Sweating bullets: Strong NW wind today? |
|
|
Hi Gang,
Glad I am not forecasting for the Bay Area today. As you can see Mark is forecasting strong NW winds later this afternoon. But...WTF... the ocean buoys are all seeing NE wind this morning at 8PM!!! Gospel says the ocean buoys show strong NW wind prior to NW winds hitting the Bay Area. So let's look at things from Mark's perspective:
As you can see in the first graphic there is a huge North Pacific High out in the pacific. So predawn Maui is already seeing building Trade Winds and the crew at San Carlos, Baja are getting ready for another epic day.
But things are tricky for the Bay Area. Look carefully at the first image and you can see a tiny spiral SW of the Bay Area.
Now drop down to the video and notice the North Pacific High's surface NW winds just west of the ocean buoys. But inside of the ocean buoys notice the counter-clockwise winds . These are being created by a tiny low pressure system left over from the recent storm. This is creating weak NE winds inside the Bay this morning. But more importantly this low pressure is blocking the strong NW winds.
Until that low pressure departs eastward we will not see any NW clearing winds in the Bay Area. Why is Mark sweating bullets? Because the majority of the models have that low pressure lingering today so the Bay Area only sees weak winds. However the higher resolution MM5 and especially the WRAMS have the low pressure departing and upper teens to low 20's wind invading parts of the bay.
Generally higher resolution models are more accurate. But they have a flaw. By focusing the computer power on a smaller area they may lose track of events just beyond their region. So in this case they may not be factoring in the tiny low pressure system.
If I were forecasting today I would take the same gamble Mark is taking. So let's watch the ocean buoys in the next few hours and see if they turn from NE to NW per Mark's forecast. And if they do plan on hitting the water.
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
Description: |
|
Filesize: |
150.1 KB |
Viewed: |
9604 Time(s) |
|
Description: |
|
Filesize: |
1.52 MB |
Viewed: |
9604 Time(s) |
|
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
SwellRipper
Joined: 21 Apr 2009 Posts: 193 Location: Channel Marker 11
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:07 pm Post subject: Tiny low |
|
|
Yes, move along tiny low, I want to sail today!
_________________ Carve the face! |
|
Back to top |
|
|
sailtildark
Joined: 22 Mar 2012 Posts: 52
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
tiny low moving out now - bodega marine lab clocking around to the west!!
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1899
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:16 pm Post subject: Noon Update |
|
|
Gang,
In the image below from 11:45AM you can see that the center of the tiny low is now well south of the Bay Area. But we are still in the edge of the easterly winds from the low.
Notice the strong NW wind west of the low. It will be a race with the clock for that low to eject to the SE and the NW winds to get into the Bay.
Say 60% chance of a win!
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
Description: |
|
Filesize: |
75.79 KB |
Viewed: |
9493 Time(s) |
|
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
prevett
Joined: 25 Jun 1997 Posts: 65
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:40 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi Mike,
Are these cool streak-line wind animations available real-time on the web somewhere?
Bob
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
sailtildark
Joined: 22 Mar 2012 Posts: 52
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1899
|
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi prevett,
Here is the link to the home page:
http://earth.nullschool.net
Be aware this page is NOT a forecast tool for the Bay Area. For example now at 2 PM this sites streamlines have ENE winds throughout the Bay Area even though the sensors at this time are showing actually seeing NW wind.
This is because this pages streamlines are based upon the old low resolution GFS model which barely sees Bay Area topography. So you are not seeing reality but rather a low rez model output.
So the page is a fun way of visualizing the overall MODELED wind pattern in the pacific and elsewhere. So you can see at a glance where storm winds and the North Pacific High's surface NW winds are relative to California. But forget it for visualizing the flow through the gaps in the coast range that funnel Bay Area winds.
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
brettn
Joined: 22 Nov 2000 Posts: 114
|
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:06 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This seems like the right thread in which to pop the question...
In Bellingham, WA, and have a camper and a week. Would like to get some windy waves, starting about 4/9 through about 4/16. Any predictions on if I can score at Pistol River, or am I better off staying on I-5 til wine country, or do I need to get south of San Francisco, like Waddell?
Anyone's 2 cents appreciated.
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum You can attach files in this forum You can download files in this forum
|
|
|