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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17748 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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Bbbbut--
I don't think any of the righties eager to blame it on Obama, or call me names, actually read the posting. This is a larger trend that may have increased due to the recession, but this is exactly on point:
Quote: | The labor force participation rate has been declining for more than a decade, and economists predict it will continue to decline for the next decade and more.
Consider a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued in November 2006, more than two years before Obama took office and before the start of the Great Recession. It pegged the start of the decline in participation rates at around 2000, and projected the decline would continue for the next four decades.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2006: Every year after 2000, the rate declined gradually, from 66.8 percent in 2001 to 66.0 percent in 2004 and 2005. According to the BLS projections, the overall participation rate will continue its gradual decrease each decade and reach 60.4 percent in 2050. |
Blaming it on Obama is what is absurd. But if you only watch Fox, and repost your right wing e-mails without doing any checking or thinking (or citations), absurd is what you get. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Posts: 5180
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Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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boggsman1 wrote: | I disagree with you on the baby boomers. |
You also disagree with the BLS. The labor participation rate compares those actually in the workforce with those who could potentially be in the workforce. Retirees are not included in the statistics. Your retiring baby boomers are a red herring. Those of retirement age who continue to work (I repeat twice the percentage of 20 years ago) are improving the LPR, not the reverse. The problem lies in younger workers inability to find work. That is a reflection of the economy right now. We can debate where the fault lies, but most reasonable people would agree, despite the howls of protest and name calling here, that a six year Administration must shoulder some of the responsibility.
BTW, if your paper pushing mid managers are now massage therapists and kiteboard instructors, that would not move the LPR one iota. Lower quality jobs are still jobs. That's why seasoned analysts to look deeper than the unemployment rate and the LPR before judging that the economy is ON FIRE!! |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer
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Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Certainly...Presidents always get blame...thats not changing. Its just crazy when I see rightys make economic arguments about the last 7-8 years. Its as if you all were vacationing on Mars during the housing crash and the aftermath. BTW- hopefully you are watching CNBC this week, as they are broad casting from San Francisco. To say the economy is on fire out here is an understatement. Tech firms are dramatically short employees, nice neighborhoods are selling at 1500-2000/sq ft. and the economy as a whole for the Bay Area is smoking. CAL is running a surplus, and things are good. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Posts: 5180
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Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2015 9:38 am Post subject: |
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So glad to hear that CA is running a surplus. Didn't realize that you had solved the massive unfunded pension and health benefit problem. Good for Moonbeam. That's a remarkable achievement given that CA has the 6th highest unemployment rate in the country........even with all those McDonalds! Shows you what the highest income taxes, highest gas taxes and most regulations can do for you......oh, and "creative" accounting. Also glad to hear about the $2000/sf housing in SFO. Seems the devastated housing market which you keep citing as the reason for current economic conditions, has returned to 2007 levels and beyond.........as it has in much of the country. But I'm sure your argument is still valid 8 years later.
Finally, thanks for the offer to tutor me on the LPR. Now that you have read my posts, you will be much better placed to do that! |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer
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Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:11 am Post subject: |
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You're welcome.
http://www.factcheck.org/2015/03/declining-labor-participation-rates/
Sorry brah, I'll go with the FRB, Marc Zandi, and other professional economists, rather than an anonymous internet debater. "The principal reason for the LPR decline over the past decade is structural". You're wrong. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Posts: 5180
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Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:44 am Post subject: |
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Fine. Keep your eyes closed or you'll get sand in them.
"Mark Zandi..........always quoted, often wrong, never in doubt" |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer
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Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:55 am Post subject: |
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mrgybe wrote: | Fine. Keep your eyes closed or you'll get sand in them.
"Mark Zandi..........always quoted, often wrong, never in doubt" |
Stay biased...it suits you fine, and the GOP appreciates your dedication. I enjoy economics. I also enjoy people cherry picking, and making arguments that suit their fancy.
oh...and its also funny that you quote John Tamny in his critique of John McCain's economic advisor....who happened to make a few reccommendations that are viewed as Keynesian. |
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billie.nielsen
Joined: 23 May 2015 Posts: 1
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Posted: Sat May 23, 2015 5:05 am Post subject: |
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