Video Blog: Friday late or Saturday NW winds.

[windfind]

Hi Gang,

Sometimes it is amazing how fast the wind patterns in the pacific can change. Today and tomorrow the pacific is dominated by southerly winds from a huge storm west of Canada. The Bay Area, on the very southern edge of the storm, is barely impacted by the storm. However the North Pacific High's surface NW winds have abandoned us response to the storm.

This video blog tells the story of the return of the North Pacific High.

http://blog.weatherflow.com/nw-winds-return/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

[MalibuGuru]

Why is NWS calling for a gale warning for Jalama, but your forecast is for 13-17?

[windfind]

Hi Steven,

Good question. The NWS marine forecast goes out to 60 miles and there is a very good chance of gale force winds outside today.

I forecast weaker winds at 7:30 AM for Jalama for a number of reasons.

1. The Pt. Arguello ocean buoy (first image below) has had N. winds much of the night and as you can see in the 2nd image N. winds hit ridges north of Jalama which will weaken the wind.

2. Look to the east of Jalama in the bottom right corner and you will see sensors showing weak SE winds. This indicates that a Gaviota eddy is trying to spin up. When I did the 7:30AM forecast it looked like those eddy winds would push the wind away from Jalama.

3. The highest resolution model (3rd. image) has the N. winds turning more NW in the late afternoon near Jalama as the pressure gradient goes up in the Southern California deserts and the Great Basin. But it still suggests only upper teens.

However, since the early morning forecast the eddy has weakened and the Pt. Arguello ocean buoy has finally turned from N to NW. So at my 11:30 updated I upped the Jalama forecast into the solid upper teens. But that is a far ways from the Gale warnings of the NWS.

Time will tell which forecast is more accurate so you are wise to consider both of them. Especially today since there are very strong NW winds aloft and as they hit the western edge to the Traverse Range near Jalama they could make gusts way above my forecast range.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

[MalibuGuru]

Very nice explanation. Thanks! I wish we could get this detailed explanation for every site just as we are getting into our car to search for wind!!