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2014 elections--what do they mean?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2014 1:03 pm    Post subject: 2014 elections--what do they mean? Reply with quote

It makes sense to post this in its own thread. So here is my take.

1. Turnout was even lower than 2010. Record numbers voted in 2008, excited by a younger black candidate. 130 million voted, and Obama's coat tails were very long. In 2010 that fell off to 90 million. According to NPR, the totals for 2014 were even lower--83 million. Fall off was particularly low among millenials, which were a big part of the Obama wave.

2, Republican operatives understand both turn out and demographic trends, and know that 2016 will be very different. The Senate seats that will be up favor Democrats regaining some seats, perhaps control. It is unlikely that the House will go back to the Democrats in 2016, even with a higher turnout.

3. Long term trends favor Democrats--but only if they can retain Hispanic voters and turn them out. Thus immigration policy is a very big deal, not just for 2016 but beyond. McConnell, despite his petulant comments about the prospects of Obama's using Executive Orders, understand this. The challenge for the Republicans who are professionals, is can they work with the bomb-throwers and craft immigration reform that makes the Republican brand less toxic to the children of immigrants? Not if they listen to the Bard's.

4. Both parties need to come to grips with the fact that bickering in politics has turned off voters, particularly younger voters. A particularly glaring example is in my District in Berkeley, with a large number of voters. In 2010, the last time the Council position was contested, 4,177 voted. This year a total of 761 voted. There are about 14,000 residents in the District.

5. McConnell has a chance to be more effective than Reid, but he must avoid needless battles where Obama has the veto authority. His initial comments, except on immigration, are encouraging. We'll see.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac

Second term midterm elections, historically, have been pretty much the same. Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, Bush...now Obama have put up with the same type of changes in congress. Then, the next presidential election rolls around and everything is up for grabs.

I predict Hillary will win handily and then Dems retake the Senate in two years. Nothing of significance will happen, legislatively, in the next two years. The Repubs will threaten Ocare over and over and over. But, not really do anything to fix the problems.

Business as usual. I have a new quiver of sails, a fresh Goya, and a couple of new kites. Right now TOW seems like the best agenda!
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Sat Nov 08, 2014 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed. But from working on public policy for decades, constant campaigning and dramatic swings every two years are bad for wise expenditure of government funds, no matter the size. Both parties are guilty, and the voters are turned off.

My prediction, which you seem to share, is that the Republicans are too obtuse to understand how short their window of opportunity is, and to afraid of their bomb throwers, to actually craft anything that would get a presidential signature, or enough votes for a veto override. Their comments about immigration executive action are either completely terrified, or completely stupid.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303

PostPosted: Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My opinion of the current Republican Party is that they are waiting for a failure to use for political advancement rather than try to be part of something bigger. If the failure doesn't occur they will just sit on their hands and collect huge salaries and issue pork projects to get re-elected.

I agree that the victory will have a short shelf life. If the Republican leadership does not come to the table very soon, Obama will have no motivation, as the distance from this election increases, to work with them. I don't think they will. I hope I am wrong.
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 6485
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Sat Nov 08, 2014 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even BHO said that this midterm election was about his policies, fine, I agree, and we know how that turned out.
Nuff said.
I return this thread over to the libs who have a lot to say.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Sun Nov 09, 2014 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NW seems imbued with the kind of deep incuriosity that infected George Bush. I suspect that he made no effort to read the exit polls; he prefers to conclude that the election was about nothing more than Obama's policies.

The Republican party and their mouthpiece Fox News have succeeded in creating a deep hatred for Obama in over 80% of Republicans. By consistently misrepresenting those policies and their effects on, for example, the recovery of the economy. All of this without suggesting alternative policies that are actually supported by a majority of Americans. Now they have a challenge, trying to implement policies that most Americans disagree with. Let's see how it goes, and how the turnout is in 2016.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 14834
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:42 pm    Post subject: Border Trouble Up North Reply with quote

The Manitoba Herald:
The flood of American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week, sparking calls for increased patrols to stop the illegal immigration. The recent actions of the Tea Party and the fact Republicans won the Senate are prompting an exodus among left-leaning citizens who fear they'll soon be required to hunt, pray, and to agree with Bill O'Reilly and Glenn Beck.

Canadian border farmers say it's not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, animal-rights activists and Unitarians crossing their fields at night.
"I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn," said Southern Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota . “The producer was cold, exhausted and hungry. He asked me if I could spare a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn't have any, he left before I even got a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?"

In an effort to stop the illegal aliens, Greenfield erected higher fences, but the liberals scaled them. He then installed loudspeakers that blared Rush Limbaugh across the fields. "Not real effective," he said. "The liberals still got through and Rush annoyed the cows so much that they wouldn't give any milk."

Officials are particularly concerned about smugglers who meet liberals near the Canadian border, pack them into Volvo station wagons, and drive them across the border where they are simply left to fend for themselves. "A lot of these people are not prepared for our rugged conditions," an Ontario border patrolman said. "I found one carload without a single bottle of imported drinking water. They did have a nice little Napa Valley cabernet, though." When liberals are caught, they're sent back across the border, often wailing loudly that they fear retribution from conservatives. Rumors have been circulating about plans being made to build re-education camps where liberals will be forced to drink domestic beer and watch NASCAR races.

In recent days, liberals have turned to ingenious ways of crossing the border. Some have been disguised as senior citizens taking a bus trip to buy cheap Canadian prescription drugs. After catching a half- dozen young vegans in powdered wig disguises, Canadian immigration authorities began stopping buses and quizzing the supposed senior-citizens about Perry Como and Rosemary Clooney to prove that they were alive in the '50s. "If they can't identify the accordion player on The Lawrence Welk Show, we become very suspicious about their age," an official said.

Canadian citizens have complained that the illegal immigrants are creating an organic-broccoli shortage and are renting all the Michael Moore movies. "I really feel sorry for American liberals, but the Canadian economy just can't support them," an Ottawa resident said. "How many art-history majors does one country need?"

In an effort to ease tensions between the United States and Canada , Vice President Biden met with the Canadian ambassador and pledged that the administration would take steps to reassure liberals. A source close to President Obama said, "We're going to have some Paul McCartney and Peter, Paul & Mary concerts. And we might even put some endangered species on postage stamps. The President is determined to reach out," he said.

_________________
when good people stay silent the right wing are the only ones heard.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9118
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's funny stuff, no need to go North...just come to NorCal !!!!one of the last liberal sanctuaries.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9293

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac, I know you're nervous about the coming right wing apocalypse, things will be just fine. If Obama continues his arrogant 1 man march, even centrist liberals will be voting for Ted Cruz. I'd suggest that the prez should listen to the more reasonable factions of his party. (especially on immigration and healthcare)

Last edited by MalibuGuru on Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:33 am; edited 1 time in total
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