Video Forecast: AWT Waddell contest June 4-7

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1902

Hi Gang,

I am hoping this turns out to be one of my worst forecasts ever and the winds RIP the entire contest time. But...

For details see: http://blog.weatherflow.com/praying-for-a-bad-forecast-since/

As forecast the North Pacific High, after a long absence, is reforming and mid morning Waddell is already in the mid teens and slated to build into the 20's.

The forecast for NW winds remains favorable for tomorrow and probably for the Thursday June 4 start of the contest.

So make your excuses and blast out of work for the contest the first day of the contest! Why....

Unfortunately, as you can see in the animation below, at this point it is looking like we see a mild marine surge sometime Friday which would mean weak southerly winds at Waddell.

The exact arrival timing of a marine surge is really difficult to predict more than 6 hour out but there is a good chance it will happen sometime Friday morning.

And Saturday looks really poor with eddies and more weak southerly wind.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

Diman · Joined: 06 Nov 2013 Posts: 20

Extremely disappointing.....

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1902

Hi Diman,

Like I said, I am hoping this is a totally wrong extended forecast. I

n doing extended forecasts like this on we have only the low resolution models to go by since the high resolution ones do not kick in until 12 to 24 hours in advance.

So something could develop that the low res. models cannot see. Don't give up hope. And if you are in the contest sail your heart out the first day!

Still, if I were considering buying tickets from New Zealand to fly in for the contest I would be worrying.

Mike
iwindsurf.com

h2oshots · Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:46 pm Post subject:

A few clicks from today...NICE Andres swell arrived to greet the contestants!

ericwelty · Joined: 03 Jun 2006 Posts: 48

Some great shots Eric, do you have some that show the size of the set waves ? The swell was pumping today, plenty of action on the water. Fingers crossed for tomorrow . Come out and check out some of the best wavesailors in the world.
Shocked

tajella · Joined: 23 Oct 2001 Posts: 53

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1902

Hi Gang,

Here is an updated blog about the forecast big wind pattern shift that should start Friday:

http://blog.weatherflow.com/the-small-picture-suggests-days-of-ripping-nw-wind-but/

This looks really good for Sherman Island Saturday but not very promising for Waddell after today.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

h2oshots · Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:19 pm Post subject:

LeeD · Joined: 12 Jun 2008 Posts: 1175

Wrong.
Higher camera angle exxagerates wave size, because the shadow appears part of the wave face.
Dead horizontal is best for true sizing.
Swell size was 3-5 at Wads, with some bigger S swell sets every 1/2 hour or so, doubt if either rider was riding the S swell sets.

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1902

Hi Gang!

Reports from those on the water at Waddell indicate that the forecast for very late winds was pretty much spot on.

Very unusual to have sub teen wind at 3PM at Waddell and then ramp up to the upper teens to just over 20.

This blog and the animation below tell the story. It looks like an obvious forecast in retrospect but at the time it was sweat inducing.

http://blog.weatherflow.com/was-the-waddell-forecast-bust-or-boom/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com