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Blog: The pacific weather pattern is a mess!

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:12 am    Post subject: Blog: The pacific weather pattern is a mess! Reply with quote
Hi Gang,

Did you notice that the Gorge forecasts for the next few days look especially wishy washy?

There is a corny old saying in meteorology: "A Cut-Off Low is a weatherman's woe"

This blog tells the woeful story in animations:

http://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-old-north-pacific-high-fades-while-new-nph-develops/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

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stringp



Joined: 20 Aug 2000
Posts: 176
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike, these animations are wonderful. Where do you come up with them?
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Mike, these animations are wonderful. Where do you come up with them?


Hi stringp,

The imagery for the animations are from from sites like weatherflow.com, earth.nullschool.net, Navel Research Lab etc. The tricky part is converting the "video" into a gif89a animation that is under 2 meg. by reduction of the frame rate, frame delay and color palette depth and then adding the annotation.

Most of these animations are from model outputs not reality. That said the models are very accurate for winds once you get away from surface topography.

So the ocean part of the animation is to be trusted. Likewise when the animation shows the winds aloft that is very accurate. The models are especially accurate at showing temperature. That is always the easiest variable to model.

But looking at the animation below for this coming Saturday winds you can see this particular model does not even "see" the Gorge or the venturi effect of the walls of the Gorge.

The model does tell you that there will be wind Saturday but the model really does not help much in telling you where and how strong the wind will be that far in the future.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

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