Winter: Hattaras, Bonaire, Arenal, Baja, Hawaii, S. Padre

[windfind]

Hi Gang,

I just got off a conference call with most of our 15 Weatherflow east and west coast meteorologist where I raised the issue of winter wind destinations with a very high probability of a major El Nino.

Normally the effect of an El Nino on wind is an easy question to answer but this year we not only have a El Nino but also a massive unprecedented Pacific heat blob spanning much of the water between the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf of Alaska. This was largely responsible for the west coasts mild winter and the Bay Area and Gorge's sometimes weird winds this summer.

We are also poised to enter a positive PDO which also heats up the eastern pacific. The effect of all of this on the El Nino is unclear. But having so much heat in the pacific waters over which inbound storms have to traverse is bound to impact the weather and the wind.

Baja wind: During a typical El Nino the average winter storm track moves southward and the sub tropical jet stream moves over southern Baja. This means:

1. A shorter wind fetch for the El Norte winds since N. Baja is gets hit by storms more often. This in turn means much smaller average swell.
2. Less frequent high pressure in the 4 corners so fewer big El Norte wind days.
3. More days with high thin clouds streaming from the SW over Baja's East Cape so the La Ventana and especially Los Barriles see weaker heat induced local sea breezes. So fewer of those 15-20 knot days.
4. And fewer of the combo days where a weak El Norte and weak local sea breezes bring low 20's wind.
5. A better chance of seeing some light sprinkles in La Ventana.
6. If you are driving back in late winter be prepared for some road issues.

Storm tracks are high variable so we should see some spells of normal wind as the storms take a northerly track and high pressure lingers in the 4 corners. But every El Nino I have experienced in 45 Baja trips has been roughly as I described above.

All of this had a greater impact on windsurfing than kiting. And usually during an El Nino there are plenty of days up near the El Sargento hot springs where there is good 14-18 knot flat water kiting. The campground area is usually weaker during an El Nino since the local sea breeze front often stalls before reaching that far south.

Personally I am planning a shorter trip and following the average storm track before departing. The peak winds will probably be later in the winter.

There was lots of tropical storm and hurricane rain in Baja's East Cape this year so expect mosquito problems if you go very early season. Once the winds pick up the mosquitos vanish.

Hawaii trade winds: One well known impact of El Nino on Hawaii is an increase of hurricanes and a disruption of the trade winds. We certainly saw that this summer. In addition the Pacific Heat Blob caused an unprecedented curving of the hurricanes into the Gulf of Alaska. And all the air the hurricanes pumped into the atmosphere is coming down into the North Pacific High which is much larger than typical in Sept.

For Hawaii winter El Nino typically means warmer water, increased heat and humidity and even late season hurricanes. Typically during an El Nino there will be long periods without trade winds. It also means persistent high surf conditions on the northern shores.

South Padre: The same sub tropical jet stream that will be over Baja's East Cape much of the winter will be over Texas. This means a wetter colder winter and more clouds and storm activity than normal. None of this is good for reliable wind. Like Baja there will be spells between the storms where you will have great wind. Check the storm track before planning a trip.

Mike

[nw30]

Living on the west coast, which will probably have fewer good windsurfing days during a winter w/ El Nino, as my past experiences have proven to me, I'd be more than happy to trade in good winter windsurfing for some much needed rain. Bring it on!!!

[bprice]

Good info. Understand and have experienced same. So where would you, and your team of IW most knowledgeable and experienced, suggest wind will be decent this winter given the unusual conditions? This is the question many of us are trying to answer. And I at least, won't hold anyone responsible for their best educated guess at the forecast. Just trying to improve the odds, which is all we can do.

[cptn_picard]

What happens to Bonaire?

[windfind]

Hi bprice & cptn_picard,

Here are a few guesscasts:

Hatteras/Outer Banks: Here are the thoughts of Jay and Shea our most experienced East Coast meteorologists:

"My feeling is the further one strays from the source (equatorial Pacific) of the El Nino, the less overall influence El Nino will have. From March until the early part of July, Hatteras rarely shuts off for more than a more than a couple day stretch. Massive down-wiinders in knee to thigh deep water, or carve it up in the Atlantic, butter or bumps, take your pick, they are right across the street from each other!

Strong NE'rlies early spring turn to strong Southerlies by mid to late spring with Westerlies mixed in between. Little of everything there."

Lake Arenal The lake has a complex response to an El Nino. I am not remotely an expert of this region but in theory the mountain slopes on the Caribbean side of Costa Rica have increased rain fall area during an El Nino. While rain fall decreases on the pacific side. Since the Lake is situated amidst the mountains it will have more clouds than typical to the east. The main concern is that Caribbean trade winds funneling though the mountains are what drives the lakes powerful winds. And typically those winds are weaker during an El Nino.

Bonaire: Best guess is that the north North Anlantic High Pressure, NAHP will be disrupted by the more southerly stop track induced by El Nino. If so this means weaker trade winds for Bonaire. This is just theory since our archives for Bonaire do not go back to the last El Nino.

Hope this helps some.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com