Blog: Most powerful hurricane ever: Update 5

[windfind]

Hi Gang,

Watch for updates below.

Something unprecedented in the eastern Pacific happened overnight. Barely noteworthy category 1 hurricane Patricia in 24 hours went to a massive category 5 hurricane as it hit the crazy warm waters off Mexico. Since the last NWS bulletin Patricia is gusting in the 240-250 mph range with 20 inches of rain expected.

Here are the words of Shea Gibson our east coast tropical specialist: "Oct 23, 2015, at 5:01 AM, Shea Gibson wrote:

Incredible...Category 5 Hurricane Patricia has reached 200mph winds with gusts near 245-250mph - with possible further intensification before making landfall. Pressure is down to 880 millibars. It's the strongest Hurricane ever in the western hemisphere (and could possibly be the strongest ever on the planet). Within a 24 hour period, pressure fell from 973mb's to 880mb's and it went from Category 1 at 90 mph to Category 5 at 200 mph...making it one the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history, if not the most. The storm eye will be making landfall along Jalisco (central Mexico) this afternoon and into tonight. This is considered a potentially catastrophic storm at this point. Keep them in your thoughts please.

The NWS bulletins usually have very calm prose but check this out:

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA ... ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 880 MB. THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE PATRICIA IS UNPRECEDENTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVING RAPIDLY INCREASED
TO 175 KT WITH GUSTS 215 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA MAY INTENSITY EVEN MORE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...MAKING LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 270 NM NE...270 NM SE...300 NM SW...AND 180 NW QUADRANTS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME WINDS... TREMENDOUS WAVES...COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATIONS WILL ACCOMPANY PATRICIA INLAND. THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA... MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND LAND SLIDES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND.

See imagery below. Fortunately this hurricane dies very quick once it loses the super heated waters of the pacific.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[dvCali]

Ok ... wind at 175 knots with gusts to 215 is terrifying. That's 400 Km/hour gust ...

[windfind]

Hurricane hunter aircraft just left the eyewall reporting sustained winds to 200 mph.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center described the storm as the most powerful ever recorded in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins “Patricia is one of the strongest tropical cyclones globally ever observed"

I have family members at a remote resort about 30 miles from the projected landfall of the hurricanes eye. They report torrential rain and calm winds at this time.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[windfind]

The early Friday central pressure recording of 880 millibars (the barometric pressure equivalent is 25.98 inches) "is the lowest for any tropical cyclone globally for over 30 years," according to the Met Office, Britain's weather service.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[windfind]

The early Friday central pressure recording of 880 millibars (the barometric pressure equivalent is 25.98 inches) "is the lowest for any tropical cyclone globally for over 30 years," according to the Met Office, Britain's weather service.


CNN: The U.S. National Hurricane Center put out its first advisory on Patricia at 10 a.m. CT (11 a.m. ET) Tuesday, noting that it then had 35 mph maximum sustained winds and no coastal warnings or watches in effect. It ticked up slightly over the course of the next two days

The next 24 or so hours, however, saw immense change -- all of it for the worse.

Patricia officially became a hurricane, with 85 mph sustained winds, in the Hurricane Center's 4 a.m. Thursday advisory. Six hours later, the top winds were already at 100 mph.

And that measurement kept going up from there, except for a slight decrease from 135 mph to 130 mph between 1 and 4 p.m. Thursday.

By 10 p.m., Patricia had become a Category 5, the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

But even then, it wasn't done -- going up from 160 mph to 200 mph winds over the early morning hours. And forecasters say it won't necessarily get much weaker before it hits the Mexican coast Friday afternoon or evening."

Looking below you can see the forecast Oct. 21 versus yesterday at 5PM. How can this build up happen so fast? Basically in recent years the Pacific has been storing up a huge amount of heat especially the northern pacific. Heat provides the energy for hurricanes. This is why we had an unprecedented number of hurricanes that peeled off the coast of Mexico towards Maui. And of course the building El Nino is adding more heat to the equation.

Google: Pacific heat blob under "images"

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[windfind]

Below is latest Recon Aircraft data as it traversed through the hurricane and its eye. Note the change in speed and pressure as the plane enters the eye.

Mike Godsey

[isobars]

Not to diminish this potential disaster, but your mention of those incredible hurricane penetration airplanes (C-130 Hercules) reminded me of the one that got blown out of the sky (as in into the ground) in New Mexico on a memorable WSing day years ago. Sure, NM is very windy, but not to the tune of 200-250 mph. The problem was the combination of high average and gust wind speeds, low altitudes, topography, and the effect of that topography on the wind.

I find it amazing that the venerable 130 is STILL the best* plane for that job. They began building them in 1956 ... almost sixty years ago. You'd think they would be the same in name only, but the primary upgrades have been stronger engines plus a recent modernization of its electronics to reduce crew workload. The damned plane was designed SO well that it is STILL in production. Maybe even more impressive is that the ones flying into hurricanes today are structurally just like their everyday workhorse twins; they are not reinforced in any way for hurricane penetration.

* Updated to recognize the technical superiority of the six unique and highly specialized scientific airplanes windfind mentioned ... as compared to the USAF's 186 WC-130J hurricane penetrators.

(The B-52 bomber is even older, and is slated to remain in operational use until at least 2040!) Some designs never die, and that says a TON about the companies and people that designed and built them.

Yet some shapers and dealers tell us last year's boards are obsolete.

REALLY?

Looks like Patricia is aiming right between two heavy population centers, which could spare huge quantities of people and infrastructure.

[windward1]

So what is the right sail size? I cannot find it on Douglas' charts....

[motogon]

[isobars]

My friends, YOU are the sail.
Talk about being one wth your equipment!