UPDATE 3 Blog: Chance big NW winds Monday: Bay, S. Cal.

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1901

Hi Gang,

Check next posting for Nov. 2 noon & 3:30PM update.

Today, Nov. 1, is our last day of forecasting for 2015 but I thought I would give you a heads up about the chances of GUSTY strong NW winds Monday Nov. 2.

These will not be the brief NW post frontal winds we sometimes see in the fall or winter. Rather these are full blown spring type NW clearing winds from a 1800 mile in diameter North Pacific High spanning the waters from Maui to Alaska to the Bay Area to Southern California to Baja Norte.

The pressure gradient tomorrow will be very weak which typically confines the NW winds to the waters near the coast.

However a strong pressure gradient seems to be developing to the Great Basin which normally means early, strong and GUSTY winds for Southern California and the Bay Area.

This video blog tells the back story about this unusual late season event.

http://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-in-wake-of-passing-cold-front-we-see-rare-late-fall-nw-clearing-winds/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1901

Hi Gang,

In the imagery below you can see that the cold front passed about 11:30AM today. Behind it are mild NW post frontal winds that are hitting some of the sensors now.

Further out in the pacific is the big NW clearing winds. Those winds arrive at the ridge tops first in the early afternoon. While the strong surface NW winds ramps up around 4-5PM. The peak NW clearing winds don't reach the ocean buoys until after dark.

So we are in a race with the clock to get strong winds into the bay before twilight when the pressure gradient fades away.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

gronquist · Joined: 12 May 2000 Posts: 70

Thanks for the huge update, Godsey. Yes, it is a race against time this evening...Here in the SB channel, is it going to turn more West? Or is it going to keep this NNW component? (Isla Vista vs C-St?)

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1901

Hi gronquist,

The cold front slowed some overnight so the Bay Area is getting the strong wind right now at 3:30 PM which is later than I expected when I made the forecast Nov. 1.

So the cold front is just now passing over the Santa Barbara area as you can see in the 3:40PM satellite imagery below. The sensors up in the canyons near Isla Vista are beginning to turn more W which means the NW clearing winds coming around Jalama are beginning to curve towards Ledbetter and C St. rather than go over the Traverse Range.

So I would expect your winds to become more favorable in the next hour.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

jerrybertrand · Joined: 25 May 1998 Posts: 14

Thanks, Mike - your [u]thoughtful [/u]alert and our crowd-adept ability to ferret out any wind which you predict AND which shows up created an epic day at 3rd Avenue from 1+ through about 5PM. At that point an expansive anvil-top that hid huge thunderheads moved over us and "quenched" the wind. Great day for all who were able to show up! BRAVO, for your significant "info + nudge"!