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Update #3 Hurricane targets Baja this weekend.

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:57 am    Post subject: Update #3 Hurricane targets Baja this weekend. Reply with quote

See new posts #2 and #3 at bottom of this thread.

Although the east pacific hurricane season is over Hurricane Sandra is building rapidly and is modeled to become a Cat. 3 storm as it moves towards the tip of Baja. If this happens it would be the latest and strongest post season east pacific hurricane on record.

If you are down in Baja and the storm maintains its current trajectory you may see significant rain and E wind turning NE to N in the 20-40 knot range by Friday and Saturday. The storm should be weakening fast at that point and if its trajectory drops a bit south this may become a non event for Baja's East Cape. Still, you should warn people camping in arroyos near the campground and near the hot springs to move their campsites. The rain will be heaviest in the mountains to the west and there is a risk of flash flooding even if the rain is light on the beaches.

On a related topic: North Pacific High continues to spin as winter approaches and the Bay Area has already seen 2 NW clearing wind events like you would normally see in the spring. So what is going on?

The World Meteorological Organization reported today that this year will be the hottest on record. Moreover every month of 2015 set an all time record as the hottest month in history. And this is before El Nino and a +PDO have fully impacted the temps.

Meanwhile the great bulk of the worlds oceans, except for the Atlantic Cold Blob, are much warmer than normal. This is setting the stage for the unending succession of hurricanes we saw in the Pacific this year and this wierd out of season hurricane. It is likely that all this heat is allowing the North Pacific High to maintain its size hence the NW winds.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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Last edited by windfind on Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:05 am; edited 2 times in total
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Below is the Sandra trajectory update Thursday Nov. 26. The out of season hurricane is weakening and tracking a bit more southward. So Los Barriles and La Ventana are quite a ways from the dangerous winds but well in the heavy rain zone at times which you can see by the orange imagery in the satellite imagery from this morning.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Here is a forecast summary issued Friday Nov. 27 for this weekend on Baja's East Cape:

Out of season hurricane Sandra continues to follow the modeled trajectory passing south of Los Cabos. Currently the average winds near the center are about 95 knots with peak gusts to 115 knots. But at its closest point near Baja its winds are modeled to have dropped to 30-40 knots near the center and much weaker over Los Barriles and La Ventana.

There is a 70-80% of rain and thunderstorms on Baja's East Cape. The rain will be heavier in the mountains posing a risk of flooding at campsites near or in arroyos.

The animation below shows the modeled wind in the La Ventana and Los Barriles area. Be aware that models do poorly at forecasting wind velocities at a given point during hurricanes since the trajectory can change fast.

Take care,

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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