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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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 Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:18 am Post subject: |
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SWC. Soirry I ignored your point, but I was angry.
You are the expert in local knowledge, and I have little knowledge of such, so I can't explain, other than to make a general point.
Coastal erosion often occurs regardless of sea level changes. To take an obvious example which I do know about, and have studied- cliff lines (ours along the Yorkshire coast) will erode and steadily recede over time given that they are continually being battered by storm and wave action.
I once sat in a kayak for about three hours, watching a spectacular spasmodic collapse of a high cliff face. Just as I kept thinking it was over, a few more stones would patter down, with another huge section of the face following, just like you often see in disaster movies. This process has been going on for centuries, and has little to do with sea level changes.
As regards flatter sea front lands, an ancient Yorkshire village (Ravenser, from memory) from the time of King Henry (part one, or part two I forget) now lies about a mile out to sea. This is owing to shifting sand spit formations, and erosion on flatter parts of the coast, in the vicinity of a large river estuary, causing relatively quick changes.
As I'm sure you will agree (as a surfer) water is an extremely powerful force which never stops its actions, especially during storms, in attacking anything in its way. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:57 am Post subject: |
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The most interesting thing about conservatives on the forum is the sheer inventiveness of their irrational defense of denial talking points. Let me start with GT, who says I have not merely misunderstood him but deliberately so. GT started with this screed, which he said was aimed at me (and perhaps at British governance):
| Quote: | A brilliant government spin to hide the fact that they have systematically downgraded and cut funding over the years, for the environment agencies which are responsible for maintaining and DREDGING our notoriously prone to flooding waterways.
) Dredging.
The widespread floods of that previous winter are now conceeded to haqve been primarily caused by the cessation of dredging the complete drainage system of those flat lands. The Dutch experts called in, confirmed as much. (Pho's from the 1960's compared to those of the present show clearly how much narrower the waterways now are. Case proven!) |
Now I have worked on hundreds of millions of dollars of dredging projects and studied river hydrology. Excuse me if I take GT literally, but it seems like he claims that the lack of dredging has caused flooding. Case proven he says. Well, maybe not. In lower rivers subject to tidal action, the bathymetry is determined by tidal processes, which happen twice daily, not irregularly. The mechanics of flooding depend on downstream water levels, which are determined by tides, not bathymetry. At low tides rivers drain dramatically better than at high tides--in the case of North west England, the difference between high and low tides can be as much as five meters. Above the tidal range, aggradation of the stream bed could well affect flooding, and maintenance of an altered river system might well be affected by government funding and competence, as well as controversy. I noted that governance of the system had changed hands a number of times, for reasons I don't know, and asked GT to do some more homework to make his case. As I said, I was underwhelmed by his response.
Current Storms and Climate Change
It is irrational to leap to the conclusion that the current storms, in England or America, are caused by climate change, or unaffected by climate change. But there are several important points in the physics that suggest that climate change might have increased the severity of the streams. First, one of the basic predictions of the climate change models is that weather will be more chaotic, and storms will be more frequent and severe. I watch and despair of our potential for grasping the mechanics of science as conservatives ignore the mounting evidence of the general validity of climate change modeling, and focus on the failure to predict tiny annual average temperature increases. Second, the physics of a warmer climate include the sad fact that warmer air can hold more water, which is then released by orographic lift (the traveling of clouds over hills and mountains where the clouds are cooled and rain falls.) More water in the clouds means more water in the runoff. There is substantial evidence that this might increase the severity of flooding in both Britain and along the Mississippi, to wit:
| Quote: | The North Pole isn't near as cold as it typically is this time of year, with a storm pushing temperatures to 50 degrees above normal.
The same storm that sparked tornadoes and flooding in the United States last week is bringing warmer air from the south and briefly pushed the temperature above freezing, according to The Atlantic. Such temperatures are more common during the summer.
As a result, the temperature at the North Pole is actually warmer than it currently is in Chicago, The Washington Post notes. |
Third, as I pointed out, the accumulation of heat in the oceans is ultimately the fuel for much of the world's storm activity. From Yale's magazine, not any environmental organization's:
| Quote: | by cheryl katz
For decades, the earth’s oceans have soaked up more than nine-tenths of the atmosphere’s excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions. By stowing that extra energy in their depths, oceans have spared the planet from feeling the full effects of humanity’s carbon overindulgence.
But as those gases build in the air, an energy overload is rising below the waves. A raft of recent research finds that the ocean has been heating faster and deeper than scientists had previously thought. And there are new signs that the oceans might be starting to release some of that pent-up thermal
Nature Climate Change
This map shows trends in global ocean heat content, from the surface to 2,000 meters deep.
energy, which could contribute to significant global temperature increases in the coming years.
The ocean has been heating at a rate of around 0.5 to 1 watt of energy per square meter over the past decade, amassing more than 2 X 1023 joules of energy — the equivalent of roughly five Hiroshima bombs exploding every second — since 1990. Vast and slow to change temperature, the oceans have a huge capacity to sequester heat, especially the deep ocean, which is playing an increasingly large uptake and storage role.
That is a major reason the planet’s surface temperatures have risen less than expected in the past dozen or so years, given the large greenhouse gas hike during the same period, said Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The phenomenon, which some call the “hiatus,” has challenged scientists to explain its cause. But new studies indicate that the forces behind the supposed hiatus are natural Ocean heat accumulation is the equivalent of five Hiroshima bombs exploding every second since 1990. — and temporary — ocean processes that may already be changing course. |
Sea level rise
I usually take GT seriously, he is usually careful, but to claim that a surfer knows tides, and checking on the actual records that have been kept is just googling (or choogling along) is not serious. Sea level is rising and relative sea level is rising even in Northwest England. Those rises to date are much smaller than the impacts of storms surges, but if you actually look at the data you see that in many parts of the world the rate of increase is accelerating. I did not argue that this is the cause of current flooding anywhere, but I am arguing that it compounds the difficulty of dealing with flooding. Flood control facilities are generally designed to last at least 50 years, and no ethical engineer in the world can predict with confidence the right amount of sea level rise, or the proper return interval for storms, for 50 years in the future.
But the funniest rebuttal of all was that of Malibu Golden Dawn, who thinks that somehow the shells in his yard have anything to do with current weather or climate. Clearly our educational system has failed to teach the residents of California the most fundamental things about the land we live in. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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I read only the first part of the latest attack, in which you are unable to differentiate what i stated for two different places. The floods of last winter in the West Country flats, and The entirely different river Ouse problem.
To take what I say for one site, and apply it to the other is daft.(Or deceitful.)
The West Country flats problem floods were primarily caused last winter by neglect of maintaining the drainage system i.e. DREDGING, as officially confirmed.
The Ouse flooding problem is not, which I, and all in the know have made clear.
There is nothing further I wish to add. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| GT--you assume that you made yourself clear and I deliberately misstated it rather than misunderstood it. Sometimes it pays to take responsibility to be clear. My comments about dredging pertained to the Ouse. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:30 am Post subject: |
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The great clean up begins, and angry recriminations are flyimg.
For example,A sturdy 200 year old stone bridge at Tadcaster, which for all that time had withstood periodic raging torrents (not uncommon to that river) collapsed. It now transpires that for quite a while before tree trunk debris had been lodged against one of the supports, ( which are shaped to deflect the water forces), and had gathered up more blocking debris to add to any leverage effect (like a battering ram) when the real flood came.
Concerned locals had reported this to the 'authorities' for quite some time before,but no action had been taken with the obvious result. The fact that the bridge had withstood 200 years of stress from floods already, highlights the fact that remote centralised agencies which lack, or ignore, local knowledge do not serve us well! |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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Angry recriminations and scapegoating are always easier than analysis and constructive suggestions for solutions. So I would ask you, again:
1. Why did control over flood control facilities pass from local authorities to the Federal government? When and why?
2. What has happened to the budget for maintenance of flood control facilities over time?
In my city, with a budget of $313 million, the public works department has only $500,000 in discretionary funding to deal with the backlog of maintenance and emergencies. I know the reasons for that, and I remain suspicious of easy answers that don't examine the governance and funding issues that underlie a problem. |
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swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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G.T., Seems that the UK might be suffering from the same trends we are seeing here in the US. Republicans are very vocal about cutting and shrinking government, and ultimately limiting its responsibilities. It's a frequent theme that we hear over and over again here on this forum. Yet, as we all know, you often get what you pay for. Cheaping out and ignoring important matters almost always leads to problems.
Needless to say, I hope things don't move more in a Republican direction. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Chandler--sometimes the answer to my questions is that some branch of government cut the maintenance budget without understanding what the implications were. After all, it takes a lot of work, and sometimes experience, to read and understand a budget document, and we have developed a pathological belief in this country that government is the enemy and we should simply elect people with no experience or understanding of how government works. Problems solved, eh? |
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swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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Lessons are sometimes painfully learned. Like in G.T.'s bridge story, in Santa Barbara we've had some events where creeks and drainage areas were neglected over time, particularly during dryer years, and then we got a 1 in a 100 year storm. The outcome can be disastrous in its toll, particularly if the upcountry was ravaged by wildfires in the summer months.
Given the fact that we are anticipating a very strong el Nino winter in 2016, I'm glad that significant attention all over the city is being paid on preparedness for the anticipated flooding that will likely occur. I even did some shoring up of the slope behind my house with some creative rock work, to include moving a lot of excess dirt to the front of my property to provide for better, more even drainage. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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I fail to see what excuse the Environment Agency can put forward for ignoring 25 warnings over a period of 3 to 4 weeks that treetrunks and debris was piling up over that bridges supports. Any local construction firm with heavy plant and steel hawsers could have cleared it (pulling from the bank well up stream) if they had been allowed to. But that would have broken dozens of rules and regulations, given that locals have no powers to act independently.
I must say, we in the north, have thousands of old or very old stone built bridges, here there and everywhere, and very few ever seem to fail. There is something to be said for good old stone!
Also, a lot of extra money seems to have been spent these last dozen years on shoring up our sea defences, with input from Dutch consultants, especially in our sea-side resorts. Walls of huge irregular shaped hard rock boulders have been piled wide and high in front of the older straight sea walls, to break up the wave action and protect them.It now seems to be a common solution all over our coasts.Something, at least, centralization seems to be doing well.
(As long as they don't do it on our windsurfing beaches. 40 whirly gigs out to sea are bad enough- Redcar- but clambouring over a jagged stone mountain to reach the water would be a step too far!!) |
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