Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:56 pm Post subject: One model suggests return of NW flow for Peninsula/coast
For the most part it has been a hard summer for Peninsula and Waddell kiters and windsurfers due to endless eddies and right now a marine surge.
Why all the southerly flow? Basically the North Pacific High has kept a ridge near the Pacific Northwest for weeks which creates NNW wind west of our ocean buoys rather than the normal NW wind.
This is an issue because:
1. It is much harder for NNW wind to curve into the San Bruno Gap to reach 3rd and harder for it to reach Waddell.
2. NNW wind favors the formation of eddies west of the Bay Area that further block the NNW ocean winds and create southerly winds along the coast.
3. And at the same time the pressure gradient towards Bakersfield has been very weak all summer while the gradient towards Stockton and Sacramento has been strong which makes for weaker winds inside at 3rd.
So anytime that a given part of the Bay Area is being wind deprived I really start searching for any hint of a return of favorable wind even 5 days out. That is why I make such a big deal about MARINE SURGES since Marin and East Bay folks are often wind deprived and southerly winds are great news for them.
But this season there have been long periods of weak or unfavorable wind for 3rd. and Waddell. So it has been rare for me to find encouraging news.
So I may be going out on a limb with this Peninsula GuessCast but some models suggest that the North Pacific High retracts that ridge and NW winds return to the ocean buoys Friday and Saturday. This means a better set up for 3rd. and Waddell, IF and ONLY IF, the pressure gradients to the Central Valley are favorable to accelerate that wind through the San Bruno Gap.
Check out the imagery below from the European ECMWF 9km model.
Incidentally, lots of people are using our apps or the new ikitesurf.com and do not see these posting. Please spread the word!
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