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CA forecast season starts EARLY as NPH migrates in Feb.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:31 pm    Post subject: CA forecast season starts EARLY as NPH migrates in Feb. Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

I left Baja early this season since I was noticing that the North Pacific High was weirdly starting its annual northward migration in February.

Take a look at the NPH's isobars stacked up against the California coast today in the animation below. This position had coast sites from Bodega to San Diego well into the 20 knot range. Right now it looks like the North Pacific High lingers within striking distance of the California coast for the next week so there is a chance of more wind. As you know the wind this early in the season is often focused just at the coast.

So we are starting the forecast season tomorrow February 19. The forecasts will be on a 1/day at 7:30AM basis with special updates as needed. If the North Pacific High departs southward we may discontinue forecasts until the normal March 1 start date.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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cbknap



Joined: 03 Jun 1997
Posts: 342

PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, Mike! It does seem like an early spring.
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NOVAAN



Joined: 28 Sep 1994
Posts: 1065

PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is that why we have not had rain here on the central coast? Things are looking bad again. Local lake at 50% and heading down every day..
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SwellRipper



Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 180
Location: Channel Marker 11

PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:11 pm    Post subject: forecasts on! Reply with quote

Yes, thanks Mike!

And yes now windy after the record warm and dry of early February.

Gusty wind has been penetrating to the Bay on the best days.

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Carve the face!
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sailtildark



Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Posts: 46

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:24 pm    Post subject: your schedule is backwards Reply with quote

Mike,

You are picking the most predictable wind-time of the year to come back! We need you here all winter to help us know when there will be any wind at all and take a vacation in the spring when its a no-brainer!
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Sailtildark,

You are right about the ease of forecasting in the spring. But that is mostly true of sites right on the coast and often true for sites like 3rd. that are straight downwind of a NW facing gap in the coast range.

But for many sites just inland the NW spring winds are more fickle and depend on a combo of a pressure gradient to the Central Valley and/or the Great Basin. And even on the coast those pressure gradients can make the wind much earlier or much gustier than common sense would forecast.

Plus I don't do gray so getting to Baja during the winter is a priority for me! But the sky is blue today so I am off snowboarding!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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sailtildark



Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Posts: 46

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike you got me - I'm a Dillon Beach-head Laughing I don't venture into the Bay until the fog sets in.

Hope you have a good day on the slopes!
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tajella



Joined: 23 Oct 2001
Posts: 45

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sailtildark wrote:
Mike you got me - I'm a Dillon Beach-head Laughing I don't venture into the Bay until the fog sets in.

Hope you have a good day on the slopes!


Sorry, off topic, but do you kite or sail Dillon beach? I am wondering if the best windsurfing launch is at the main parking lot or is it by the Lawson's Landing campgrounds?

Thanks.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi tajella,

Sailtildark probably has more current information but I used to windsurf Dillon frequently. The shoreline and sandbars just offshore changes a lot some year but usually the best launch is near the entrance to the campground.

You have to carry your stuff over the sand dunes and the winds is onshore show you really have to have good pointing skills and be able to get over white water. The most interesting waves are near the mouth of the of Tomales Bay. The waves peak fast as the ebb builds. Sometimes lots of sharks and a current from Tomales that will carry you far out into the ocean if you break down.

Overall it is a place better for kiting than windsurfing but still lots of fun. Grassy point just a ways inside Tomales Bay and Tubamancha offer great sailing.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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sailtildark



Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Posts: 46

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kiting there now but used to one of the few regular windsurfers there until I went to the darkside (surfing is my first love so much more similar to that). Most windsurfers and kiters launch from the main parking lot. There were quite a few (i.e. 3 or 4) windsurfers there last weekend. The only real trick for windsurfing is the shorepound/downwind current at the beach when the tide is really high. I've been swept down the beach several times but it usually means you need a bigger sail. You only need to park down at Lawson's if you can't handle the shorebreak. It's where I would take my friends to fool them into thinking Dillon is easy sailing. Oh yeah and don't drive your new car it will get sandblasted.
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