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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 13045
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:24 pm    Post subject: Syria Reply with quote

It makes sense to start a new thread on Syria. Particularly if the collapse and retreat of the Kurds leads to reviving ISIS. Here's a bit of analysis:


Quote:
By
Rick Noack
Oct. 14, 2019 at 5:49 a.m. PDT
When President Trump announced his decision to pull troops from northern Syria, his critics immediately warned that the move would pave the way for a Turkish offensive with potentially catastrophic repercussions.

State Department officials swiftly denied that Trump supported the Turkish incursion. Meanwhile, Trump appeared convinced he had made the right choice.

“Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out,” Trump wrote.

They now indeed are, but not to the advantage of the United States.

“What’s clear is that the U.S. has shot itself into the foot,” said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.

Who are likely winners?
The U.S. pullout has enabled Turkey to pursue its military incursion without having to fear U.S. interference, but it has also created opportunities for four of the United States’ key foes: Iran, the Assad regime, Russia and — potentially — the Islamic State group.

Who is set to lose most?
The biggest losers — it appears at this stage — are the allies who fought alongside U.S. soldiers in Syria: Europe and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The former are afraid the move will free Islamic State prisoners held in Kurdish prisons and camps and expose Europe to new militant attacks after a period of relative calm. The latter had established a de facto state in the north of Syria during the past years — in large parts in places previously ruled by the Islamic State. The Kurds hoped their territory was somewhat protected by a U.S. military presence that acted as a deterrent.

How did we get to this point?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long viewed the Kurdish-held territory in Syria as a haven for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK — which Erdogan considers to be a terrorist group.

Meanwhile, to the south of the Kurdish-held territories, Russia and Iran-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have been waiting for an opportunity to seize back the cities and swaths of land he lost during the war.

Trump’s announcement of a pullout one week ago offered an opening for both Erdogan and Assad. On Wednesday, Turkish troops began their offensive at multiple points along the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish artillery fire on the Kurds, a mass exodus of civilians and apparent footage of roadside executions of Kurdish fighters soon followed. Hundreds of Islamic State family members escaped detention, according to Kurdish officials.

Without U.S. backing and amid mounting chaos, the Kurds appeared to face the choice between a deadly confrontation with the militarily superior Turkish forces — or a deal with the Assad regime.

By Sunday, the SDF had opted for the second option: They announced a deal with the Syrian government to allow forces loyal to the regime to enter its territory. By Monday, Syrian government troops were raising flags in the towns close to the Turkish-Syrian border in a move that could make the presence of the remaining U.S. troops in the region unsustainable.

How do the Assad regime, Russia and Iran benefit?
With the United States voluntarily giving up much of its leverage in Syria, Russia has probably the most to gain. Throughout the Syrian civil war, Russia has staunchly supported the Assad regime. During the weekend, the New York Times revealed that the Russian Air Force deliberately and repeatedly bombed Syrian hospitals in rebel-held areas, indicating how far Russia is willing to go to support Assad.

But apart from military force, Russian President Vladimir Putin has also pushed ahead with diplomatic initiatives, positioning him at the center of the Syrian morass. The U.S. pullout expands the Russian leverage in at least two ways.

Firstly, the strengthening of the Assad regime would inevitably also bolster Russia, a key backer.

But ironically, it could also help to deepen Moscow’s ties to the country Assad’s forces may now face off in northern Syria: Turkey. With the United States potentially poised to impose sanctions on Turkey, as Trump indicated Monday, Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey could speed up — despite the countries’ differing interests in Syria.

From Russia’s perspective, this apparent contradiction may not seem so contradictory at all. In the past, Moscow has argued that SDF fighters should yield control to the Assad regime. The Turkish incursion and U.S. pullout may lead to exactly such a scenario, as Sunday’s deal between the SDF and the Assad regime appeared to suggest.

The developments of the past week may also be an opportunity for Iran, another backer of the Assad regime. The U.S. pullout, said Brookings researcher Fathollah-Nejad, “will expand Iran’s opportunities to engage with Kurds and portray itself as the only reliable partner.” This could help Tehran restrict the Kurds’ drive for empowerment, which Iran opposes.

But Fathollah-Nejad cautioned that Russia’s and Iran’s interests in Syria were not necessarily aligned and that the Turkish incursion may still end up becoming a “double-edged sword” for Iran, which explains why Iranian officials have officially condemned the Turkish offensive.

Iranian officials may fear a radicalization of Kurdish separatism, said Fathollah-Nejad, and a full-blown resurgence of the Islamic State.

How does Islamic State gain?
Amid the backlash against his decision to pull U.S. troops out of northern Syria, Trump went on the offensive last week and blamed European countries for what he suggested was a lack of willingness to take back Islamic State fighters born in Europe and held by the Syrian Kurds.

“Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost,” Trump reiterated on Monday.

European officials have rejected Trump’s criticism, arguing that Islamic State returnees would in many cases walk free in Europe, as authorities often lack evidence for crimes committed in Syria or Iraq. Despite fierce criticism from human rights advocates, major European governments have opted to leave Islamic State fighters in Kurdish detention.

The U.S. pullout has resulted in an outcome detrimental both to U.S. counterterrorism officials and their European counterparts. Some 785 people affiliated with the Islamic State escaped from a camp on Sunday, according to Kurdish officials.

Apart from the escape of former Islamic State fighters or supporters, European officials worry the chaos of renewed widespread military conflict in that part of Syria could provide the Islamic State group with an opening to conduct new attacks and rebuild its organization.



To be sure, the unsettling effects of climate change and religious wars in the Middle East and northern Africa have much to do with the continuing flight of refugees into Europe. But diplomacy by tweet is the coin of the realm today.
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 5912
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So Code Pink, and all the other anti-war types gets their way, and the liberals freak out.
So apparently the liberals now want the U.S. to be the world's police.
Pretty easy to equate this pull-out with the Viet Nam pull-out, we promised the S. Vietnamese many things that we didn't uphold. Should we have stayed in Viet Nam?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 13045
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Which is it, don't read, can't read, won't read?

The issue is not pulling back from a role as the police man of the world. The issue is doing it incompetently.
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vientomas



Joined: 25 Apr 2000
Posts: 947

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nw30 wrote:
So Code Pink, and all the other anti-war types gets their way, and the liberals freak out.
So apparently the liberals now want the U.S. to be the world's police.
Pretty easy to equate this pull-out with the Viet Nam pull-out, we promised the S. Vietnamese many things that we didn't uphold. Should we have stayed in Viet Nam?


You apply labels to simplify your world view into a binary system. The world and the people who inhabit it are diverse, even people within the same self identified group. I'm a liberal, but I believe the US assistance given to the Kurds to fight ISIS was appropriate. I also believe that the time, money and treasure given to that endeavor has now been wasted. I'm also a fiscal conservative and a human being. I'm not happy with money and lifes now wasted due to Trump's decision. Other than bringing home a small group of soldiers, volunteer soldiers mind you, what benefit is there to the US from the withdrawal?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19272

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump was damned if he didn't, damned if he did, so he made and acted on his own, presumably highly informed, decision*. It's debated openly and fairly on at least one news channel many times a day. The world's most astute and educated foreign policy students and pundits can't agree on it, and certainly none of us is qualified to definitively overrule many of them anyway.

* I do that every time I decide whether and to what length to post here, what to eat, how to work out, what medical advice to accept or reject from doctors, how big a threat global warming is, and much more. What I do NOT consciously do is base any of those decisions on pressure from uninformed people (such as media polls about "information" spewed by those media); the volume, aggression, level of vulgarity, or level of insanity of some individual critics (the fringe left, from Trump's case to this forum); doctors who refuse to read any modern medical research; and/or that research itself when it's self-contradictory or highly suspect.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 13045
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Trump was damned if he didn't, damned if he did, so he made and acted on his own, presumably highly informed, decision*. It's debated openly and fairly on at least one news channel many times a day. The world's most astute and educated foreign policy students and pundits can't agree on it, and certainly none of us is qualified to definitively overrule many of them anyway.

* I do that every time I decide whether and to what length to post here, what to eat, how to work out, what medical advice to accept or reject from doctors, how big a threat global warming is, and much more. What I do NOT consciously do is base any of those decisions on pressure from uninformed people (such as media polls about "information" spewed by those media); the volume, aggression, level of vulgarity, or level of insanity of some individual critics (the fringe left, from Trump's case to this forum); doctors who refuse to read any modern medical research; and/or that research itself when it's self-contradictory or highly suspect.


So much happy horseshit flies around rationalizing Trump's reckless behavior. The President has a national security council, a military that is embedded in Syria working to end ISIS, and a Department of State. He consulted none of the above. He consulted Vlad and Erdogan. Fellow members of team traitor.
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mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 6637

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
isobars wrote:
Trump was damned if he didn't, damned if he did, so he made and acted on his own, presumably highly informed, decision*. It's debated openly and fairly on at least one news channel many times a day. The world's most astute and educated foreign policy students and pundits can't agree on it, and certainly none of us is qualified to definitively overrule many of them anyway.

* I do that every time I decide whether and to what length to post here, what to eat, how to work out, what medical advice to accept or reject from doctors, how big a threat global warming is, and much more. What I do NOT consciously do is base any of those decisions on pressure from uninformed people (such as media polls about "information" spewed by those media); the volume, aggression, level of vulgarity, or level of insanity of some individual critics (the fringe left, from Trump's case to this forum); doctors who refuse to read any modern medical research; and/or that research itself when it's self-contradictory or highly suspect.


So much happy horseshit flies around rationalizing Trump's reckless behavior. The President has a national security council, a military that is embedded in Syria working to end ISIS, and a Department of State. He consulted none of the above. He consulted Vlad and Erdogan. Fellow members of team traitor.



That's where it all goes down hill....when good old Mac goes all tabloid news on us..
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 8585

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mat-ty wrote:
mac wrote:
isobars wrote:
Trump was damned if he didn't, damned if he did, so he made and acted on his own, presumably highly informed, decision*. It's debated openly and fairly on at least one news channel many times a day. The world's most astute and educated foreign policy students and pundits can't agree on it, and certainly none of us is qualified to definitively overrule many of them anyway.

* I do that every time I decide whether and to what length to post here, what to eat, how to work out, what medical advice to accept or reject from doctors, how big a threat global warming is, and much more. What I do NOT consciously do is base any of those decisions on pressure from uninformed people (such as media polls about "information" spewed by those media); the volume, aggression, level of vulgarity, or level of insanity of some individual critics (the fringe left, from Trump's case to this forum); doctors who refuse to read any modern medical research; and/or that research itself when it's self-contradictory or highly suspect.


So much happy horseshit flies around rationalizing Trump's reckless behavior. The President has a national security council, a military that is embedded in Syria working to end ISIS, and a Department of State. He consulted none of the above. He consulted Vlad and Erdogan. Fellow members of team traitor.



That's where it all goes down hill....when good old Mac goes all tabloid news on us..


Here's real fake news that Mac relies on for his opinions. Hilarious ABC "footage" of the Kurds being slaughtered......in Kentucky

https://www.infowars.com/watch/?video=5da51412511ff90014a5ffb4
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vientomas



Joined: 25 Apr 2000
Posts: 947

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Trump was damned if he didn't, damned if he did, so he made and acted on his own, presumably highly informed, decision*. It's debated openly and fairly on at least one news channel many times a day. The world's most astute and educated foreign policy students and pundits can't agree on it, and certainly none of us is qualified to definitively overrule many of them anyway.

* I do that every time I decide whether and to what length to post here, what to eat, how to work out, what medical advice to accept or reject from doctors, how big a threat global warming is, and much more. What I do NOT consciously do is base any of those decisions on pressure from uninformed people (such as media polls about "information" spewed by those media); the volume, aggression, level of vulgarity, or level of insanity of some individual critics (the fringe left, from Trump's case to this forum); doctors who refuse to read any modern medical research; and/or that research itself when it's self-contradictory or highly suspect.


Tune in next time for another episode of "Mikey's Always Right". Where Mikey will tell everyone the inane derails of his life and how much smarter he is than everyone else...and that his politics are on the extreme right of the political spectrum. It's sure to be a hoot on Mikey's Always Right! Brought to you by Trump 2020, MAGA - Morons are Governing America.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 13045
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And just for giggles and shits, the paranoid from Malibu posts fake news from the most paranoid site in America, info wars. All diversion, all the time. While real people describe Rudy as a grenade that is about to blow everybody up.

Boom!
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