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iwind ? - Todays Forecast for "Doggie Poo Beach"
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WNDZRFR



Joined: 28 Mar 2000
Posts: 57
Location: Greater East Bay Area

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject: iwind ? - Todays Forecast for "Doggie Poo Beach" Reply with quote

Hi iwind,

When you say "doggie poo beach" are you talking about the little bay at the west end of Shimada where the kiters launch? If not where? As we are starved for good wind lately in the East Bay.

Todays Forecast:

This latter pressure gradient poses a problem for Pt. Isabel, Berkeley, Olympic Circle and Alameda since it MAY divert most of the wind coming into the Central Bay into San Pablo Bay. This could mean locally strong wind just west of Shimada Park. It also means strong WSW wind for Doggie Poo Beach, Treasure Island and Crissy. The same gradient to Napa makes the Peninsula winds a bit more W to WSW posing problems for 3rd. inside.

Thanks

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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1431

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No. It is a very very rarely sailed tiny beach at the very edge of Tiburon coming 101, passing Blackies Pasture entering the old residential area. Hard to find parking and it is pretty boring to sail. But if the pressure gradient to Napa holds this afternoon then it should get wind.

By the same token if you could somehow get to the sand spit extending northward from Brook's Island you might find wind. And possibly from Shimada but with SSW wind getting out might be hard.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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andydavis



Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Posts: 312
Location: Point Isabel

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
...if you could somehow get to the sand spit extending northward from Brook's Island you might find wind. And possibly from Shimada but with SSW wind getting out might be hard.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com


right now, looking out of my office window on the Richmond Channel, I predict it will be very sailable from the Barbara and Jay Vincent Park in Marina Bay.
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dvCali



Joined: 23 Aug 2007
Posts: 857

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:31 pm    Post subject: Re: iwind ? - Todays Forecast for "Doggie Poo Beach" Reply with quote

WNDZRFR wrote:
Hi iwind,

When you say "doggie poo beach" are you talking about the little bay at the west end of Shimada where the kiters launch? If not where? As we are starved for good wind lately in the East Bay.

Todays Forecast:

This latter pressure gradient poses a problem for Pt. Isabel, Berkeley, Olympic Circle and Alameda since it MAY divert most of the wind coming into the Central Bay into San Pablo Bay. This could mean locally strong wind just west of Shimada Park. It also means strong WSW wind for Doggie Poo Beach, Treasure Island and Crissy. The same gradient to Napa makes the Peninsula winds a bit more W to WSW posing problems for 3rd. inside.

Thanks


Nah ... There is not going to be wind at Crissy or Treasure today. Far away fog line and by extension most locations west/north-west of there are going to be very light. Coyote dead most likely. (By dead I mean 7.3 sail. How do I know this? Just looking out of the window at the Ocean! Shocked )
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1431

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andy Davis:
Quote:
right now, looking out of my office window on the Richmond Channel, I predict it will be very sailable from the Barbara and Jay Vincent Park in Marina Bay.


Hi Andy,
The 11:30 AM forecast update highlighted a hint of a fast build-up of a Golden Gate Eddy creating weak southerly wind along the ocean beaches and, as you know, that really ups the Pt. Isabel winds and mentioned much stronger towards Brook's Island. And it has already exceeded even that amped up forecast. For the same reason I upped the Larkspur and Brickyards/Peacock Gap wind at 11:30AM

dvCali:
Quote:
Nah ... There is not going to be wind at Crissy or Treasure today. Far away fog line and by extension most locations west/north-west of there are going to be very light. Coyote dead most likely. (By dead I mean 7.3 sail. How do I know this? Just looking out of the window at the Ocean! Shocked )


Hi dvCali,

Take a look at both the images below. The reason the ocean looks so calm out your window is that from Ocean Beach to about 7 miles out there is a Golden Gate Eddy. Those southerly eddy winds are too weak to make white caps so it looks to you like there is no ocean wind.

But the eddy usually dies midday. Then, if I am right, the strong pressure gradient to Redding will curve the NW ocean wind so Crissy and Treasure Island hit the low to mid 20's OUTSIDE. Like the forecast says the winds will be weak inside.

Right now at Point Blunt is averaging 27 and Anita Rock 16 so I think there is a decent chance my forecast is on track. Normally your window would be a good hint of wind but to when there is an eddy don't trust the window.

All of this might make a good blog topic.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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dvCali



Joined: 23 Aug 2007
Posts: 857

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
Andy Davis:
Quote:
right now, looking out of my office window on the Richmond Channel, I predict it will be very sailable from the Barbara and Jay Vincent Park in Marina Bay.


Hi Andy,
The 11:30 AM forecast update highlighted a hint of a fast build-up of a Golden Gate Eddy creating weak southerly wind along the ocean beaches and, as you know, that really ups the Pt. Isabel winds and mentioned much stronger towards Brook's Island. And it has already exceeded even that amped up forecast. For the same reason I upped the Larkspur and Brickyards/Peacock Gap wind at 11:30AM

dvCali:
Quote:
Nah ... There is not going to be wind at Crissy or Treasure today. Far away fog line and by extension most locations west/north-west of there are going to be very light. Coyote dead most likely. (By dead I mean 7.3 sail. How do I know this? Just looking out of the window at the Ocean! Shocked )


Hi dvCali,

Take a look at both the images below. The reason the ocean looks so calm out your window is that from Ocean Beach to about 7 miles out there is a Golden Gate Eddy. Those southerly eddy winds are too weak to make white caps so it looks to you like there is no ocean wind.

But the eddy usually dies midday. Then, if I am right, the strong pressure gradient to Redding will curve the NW ocean wind so Crissy and Treasure Island hit the low to mid 20's OUTSIDE. Like the forecast says the winds will be weak inside.

Right now at Point Blunt is averaging 27 and Anita Rock 16 so I think there is a decent chance my forecast is on track. Normally your window would be a good hint of wind but to when there is an eddy don't trust the window.

All of this might make a good blog topic.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com


I am just joking Very Happy although looking at the Ocean has served very well for many years: if it is not windy here it ain't anywhere!

Today the local wind is slightly southerly, and broke in very late (it is just blowing a bit now, 15:30, maybe 10-14 knots). Bad omen for Crissy, especially inside. Coyote probably worse (it takes time for the wind to get there!). Stick will be going just because whatever trickles in is 10 yards from the lunching spot. TI maybe, slogging to wind line? But it is very late

All this is of course completely made up! Shocked Shocked Shocked I might just be looking at correlations and playing "the old fisherman" without making much sense.


Last edited by dvCali on Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1431

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wind appears to be fairly strong outside at Crissy and just a bit past Anita Rock inside at 3:30 PM. Usually, when there is a Golden Gate Eddy there is a lot more fog and, as DvCali says, a very long slog to the windline.

But this is an atypical Golden Gate Eddy since it was not present at dawn (hence the fumble on the 7AM Pt. Isabel forecast). And the late eddy build today meant thin marine layer clouds and good Crissy clearing.

Get ready for a minor eddy tomorrow and a probably a mega eddy Saturday! Get ready for clouds and SW flow!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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Last edited by windfind on Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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tomg



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 262

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honking at Blunt but TI still a mystery....

We've seen more than a few days at TI in which there was little to no wind at the Island but some hundreds of yards out, an abrupt wind line and howling winds to and past (north of) Pt Blunt. Fun if you can get to it!

But I prefer some wind all over to tons of wind in a small spot.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1431

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom,

Just a quick note. If the forecast mentions strong NW winds aloft and weak winds at Pt. Isabel most of the wind in the Slot will be towards Treasure Island and weaker towards Treasure Island.

But if the forecast mentions SW flow aloft and a Golden Gate Eddy and stronger wind towards Pt. Isabel then the Slot wind will be mostly towards Point Blunt and weaker near Treasure Island.

Just a useful generalization.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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airwave



Joined: 29 Jun 2000
Posts: 359

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As it turned out, Pt Isabel to Shimada, around to Barbara and Jay Vincent Park, to Brooks, out to the Albany Bulb and over to the Point Richmond breakwater and sand spit all had wind, all afternoon. Pretty solid, though I admit I rigged a bit to small.
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