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dvCali
Joined: 23 Aug 2007 Posts: 1314
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Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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rigatoni wrote: | I am on board with flattening the curve. However, we are seeing this curve flattening and the response from local authorities is the opposite-tighten the screws. As you point out, the more people who are exposed to the virus, the more people who develop antibodies, the more people who are theoretically immune from infection, and the better we are able to withstand a "second wave" and get more parts of our society functioning. My issue is a local government (who did the right thing initially) not responding to facts but rather reacting to optics of what they see on the news. (Bloomberg did an article today with a photo of what looked like a packed trail. Any photographer knows that a photo taken with a telephoto lens results in forshortening and thus an illusion of a more crowded trail)
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Hi Rigatoni, indications that the the curve(s) are flattening are good news. They indicate that social distancing is working. But it is not enough, you want the curve to disappear. If you open up when the curve just flattens up. or it is going down, you are pretty much guaranteed a new wave.
San Francisco has relatively low rates but it has been growing at 20-50 new cases a day for weeks. Last Saturday (April 11 the last point in the curve below) had a particularly low increase. We'll see what happens tomorrow (monday). You can check it at https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/fjki-2fab
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hilton08
Joined: 02 Apr 2000 Posts: 506
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1902
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Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Gang,
I thought some data might lighten up the forum ruckus a bit.
First the graphic below shows the latest national data for confirmed positives and deaths.
Next, there is a lot of talk about how there are hints some places, like San Francisco, that started social distancing very early, are seeing signs of "Flattening the Curve"
Some people apparently have never looked at the Imperial College model curves that got Trumps attention. So they are concluding we are nearly out of the woods.
First, check out the DO NOTHING Curve different DISTANCING curves. Much of the USA is approximating the BLUE curve which indeed is flatter.
But now toss your MAG cap or your Biden cap in the trash and take a look at the Imperial College model curves while wearing your critical thinking cap and draw your own conclusions.
Next here is today's data for Hood River and Klickitat counties that border the Gorge's corridor.
I have also attached the most recent data on Oregon and Washington by county.
Lastly... some people seem to have the idea that their being out on the river is harmless. And it is.... to them. The problem is that looking at the OR. and WA map above you can see that there are counties and cities near us that have far higher % of positives. And some of these people, especially the younger ones, are unknowingly asymptomatic spreaders of the virus.
So when they get the word that Gorge people are sailing/kiting at certain sites they may come here to sail. And when they use our gas stations etc. they may spread the disease. Yep, The Hook is open for windsurfing but the opening only applies to residents per the Port Authority.
So be smart, if you find one of those places where we can still sail do NOT post it on these forums.
Mike Godsey
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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001 Posts: 5467 Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:42 am Post subject: |
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Mike your quote:
So when they get the word that Gorge people are sailing/kiting at certain sites they may come here to sail. And when they use our gas stations etc. they may spread the disease. Yep, The Hook is open for windsurfing but the opening only applies to residents per the Port Authority.
So be smart, if you find one of those places where we can still sail do NOT post it on these forums.
My question
Question, how does the Port Authority , have Jurisdiction over a Governors State Order?
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Bond1
Joined: 25 Apr 2000 Posts: 168
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:47 am Post subject: |
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Unless something additional has been issued by the governor's office since the original order issued March 23rd, leaving the Hook open doesn't violate the order if social distancing can be maintained.
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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001 Posts: 5467 Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:22 am Post subject: |
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Governor of Oregon wrote
Wording is: “Individuals are directed to minimize travel, other than essential travel to or from home, residence, or workplace; for obtaining or providing food, shelter, essential consumer needs, health care, emergency services; for the care of family members, household members, elderly persons, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons.”
To violate the order is a Class C misdemeanor citation, this carries a penalty of up to 30 days in jail a $1250 fine or both.
I think it’s Executive Order , NO.20-12, about 10pages. The essential travel part about comes from Kate addressing questions on it.
How would windsurfing fall into essential travel ? Any possibility of contact, gas pump, number pad, car breaks down, accident, increases the likehood of being infected.
( 30 day in Jail would be a eye opening experience , without having been there myself, I read a lot )
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Bond1
Joined: 25 Apr 2000 Posts: 168
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:36 am Post subject: |
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U2U2U2 wrote: | Governor of Oregon wrote
Wording is: “Individuals are directed to minimize travel, other than essential travel to or from home, residence, or workplace; for obtaining or providing food, shelter, essential consumer needs, health care, emergency services; for the care of family members, household members, elderly persons, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons.”
To violate the order is a Class C misdemeanor citation, this carries a penalty of up to 30 days in jail a $1250 fine or both.
I think it’s Executive Order , NO.20-12, about 10pages. The essential travel part about comes from Kate addressing questions on it.
How would windsurfing fall into essential travel ? Any possibility of contact, gas pump, number pad, car breaks down, accident, increases the likehood of being infected.
( 30 day in Jail would be a eye opening experience , without having been there myself, I read a lot ) |
I'm not advocating leaving the Hook open.
“Individuals are directed to minimize travel....." She used the word minimize. Travel isn't banned, it's to be minimized. Many believe this means to stay home or stay near home. I've been staying home, with the exception of going to the grocery store. I have work that I can't do. I'd prefer other's to stay home too, but if someone lives in Hood River and they drive to the Hook and that's the extent of their non essential travel, it seems it might meet the criteria for minimizing travel.
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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001 Posts: 5467 Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:24 am Post subject: |
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Bond1 wrote: | U2U2U2 wrote: | Governor of Oregon wrote
Wording is: “Individuals are directed to minimize travel, other than essential travel to or from home, residence, or workplace; for obtaining or providing food, shelter, essential consumer needs, health care, emergency services; for the care of family members, household members, elderly persons, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons.”
To violate the order is a Class C misdemeanor citation, this carries a penalty of up to 30 days in jail a $1250 fine or both.
I think it’s Executive Order , NO.20-12, about 10pages. The essential travel part about comes from Kate addressing questions on it.
How would windsurfing fall into essential travel ? Any possibility of contact, gas pump, number pad, car breaks down, accident, increases the likehood of being infected.
( 30 day in Jail would be a eye opening experience , without having been there myself, I read a lot ) |
I'm not advocating leaving the Hook open.
“Individuals are directed to minimize travel....." She used the word minimize. Travel isn't banned, it's to be minimized. Many believe this means to stay home or stay near home. I've been staying home, with the exception of going to the grocery store. I have work that I can't do. I'd prefer other's to stay home too, but if someone lives in Hood River and they drive to the Hook and that's the extent of their non essential travel, it seems it might meet the criteria for minimizing travel. |
What happened when you read what’s considered essential trAvel .?
You can’t , use a phrase , like minimize travel without considering , what she considers that to be, in short it says essential , food, care of others, hospital , work if applicable.
Exercise , I’m going to write is permitted , does that refer to driving to a river ?
I think not.
The hook being open, I know what that is, are there people that can carry their gear,by hand or wheelbarrow, from their residence ? Maybe 2 can carry while maintaining 6 foot.
It they maintain the distance and number of others, under some number , 50?
Then go sail.
And I hope you don’t require any EMT or other medical service while there, it would be a shame
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999 Posts: 20935
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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These are all valid points, on both sides, IMO. HOWEVER ... major flaws in this whole process seem pretty apparent to me:
1. The CV math models have proven to be pretty ridiculous, just like in that OTHER math model doomsday scenario that threatens to dwarf the impacts of this "bug" (by comparison). Do we really want to destroy the economy based on models? Do we really want to repeat this with every new coronavirus season? And does anyone this side of Zeke Emanuel, architecture of the Affordable Care Act, believe we must stay in our homes for at least another 18 months?
2. Keeping liquor stores open makes us non-alcoholics (anyone who considers booze essential has a serious drinking problem) roll our eyes and take all these precautions less seriously than we maybe should.
3. We could save so MANY more lives if we were forced forever to stop driving over 20 mph, smoking, eating crap manufactured by man in factories from what was once actually food, and sitting for more than one hour per day.
4. No one knows better than we in this forum that there's infinitely more to windsurfing that just "exercise". I.E., "Sorry, Offisa Pup, but running or calisthenics or freaking yoga just don't cut it.
5. To many of us and to varying degrees, WSing is far more "essential" than family, church, career, money, food, life-affecting medical treatment, and/or sleep, over days to decades.
6. Seriously? ARRESTING and jailing people for mowing a lawn, sitting in their cars listening to a sermon, SUPing alone on the ocean, or playing with their own children in an otherwise empty park ... especially while letting heavily armed drug dealers loose among the public?
And not only are those just for starters, but most of them also apply for tens or hundreds of thousands of families like mine for whom the net personal impacts of CV are positive.
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Bond1
Joined: 25 Apr 2000 Posts: 168
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Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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U2U2U2 wrote: | Bond1 wrote: | U2U2U2 wrote: | Governor of Oregon wrote
Wording is: “Individuals are directed to minimize travel, other than essential travel to or from home, residence, or workplace; for obtaining or providing food, shelter, essential consumer needs, health care, emergency services; for the care of family members, household members, elderly persons, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons.”
To violate the order is a Class C misdemeanor citation, this carries a penalty of up to 30 days in jail a $1250 fine or both.
I think it’s Executive Order , NO.20-12, about 10pages. The essential travel part about comes from Kate addressing questions on it.
How would windsurfing fall into essential travel ? Any possibility of contact, gas pump, number pad, car breaks down, accident, increases the likehood of being infected.
( 30 day in Jail would be a eye opening experience , without having been there myself, I read a lot ) |
I'm not advocating leaving the Hook open.
“Individuals are directed to minimize travel....." She used the word minimize. Travel isn't banned, it's to be minimized. Many believe this means to stay home or stay near home. I've been staying home, with the exception of going to the grocery store. I have work that I can't do. I'd prefer other's to stay home too, but if someone lives in Hood River and they drive to the Hook and that's the extent of their non essential travel, it seems it might meet the criteria for minimizing travel. |
What happened when you read what’s considered essential trAvel .?
You can’t , use a phrase , like minimize travel without considering , what she considers that to be, in short it says essential , food, care of others, hospital , work if applicable.
Exercise , I’m going to write is permitted , does that refer to driving to a river ?
I think not.
The hook being open, I know what that is, are there people that can carry their gear,by hand or wheelbarrow, from their residence ? Maybe 2 can carry while maintaining 6 foot.
It they maintain the distance and number of others, under some number , 50?
Then go sail.
And I hope you don’t require any EMT or other medical service while there, it would be a shame |
Again, I'm talking only about my interpretation of the order, not what I would like to see people do.
The order says “Individuals are directed to minimize travel, other than......"
In other words, "Here is the list of essential travel that does not need to be minimized, everything else is considered nonessential travel and must be minimized."
Minimized, not eliminated.
Further up the order she allows recreational areas to stay open if proper distancing can be maintained. She's not going to leave recreational areas open then tell you that you can't use them.
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