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COVID-19 and reduced forecast accuracy.

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:15 pm    Post subject: COVID-19 and reduced forecast accuracy. Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Model) sent out a news release Tuesday reporting a worldwide severe (42%) reduction in aircraft reports due to flight cancellations due to the pandemic. These auto aircraft reports of upper-level conditions aircraft experience are critical inputs to all the weather models and also allow model accuracy verification.

There is still data input from cargo aircraft but those are mostly overnight flights according to NOAA. We still have weather stations, balloons, satellite, radar etc. However a 2017 study by the American Meteorological Society aircraft concluded aircraft observations reduced six-hour forecast errors in wind, humidity and temperature by 15% to 30% across the US.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0398.1

I don't think our California forecasts will suffer this much since we rely a lot on local data sources but the extended forecasts will probably be less accurate.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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