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Updated image 8AM today: strong marine surge

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1691

PostPosted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:55 pm    Post subject: Updated image 8AM today: strong marine surge Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

See updated imagery below!

I put out a marine surge alert this morning and now at 11:47 I am gaining confidence in that forecast.

In the satellite animation below you can see how fast the southerly marine surge has moved since dawn. If it continued that march it, and its powerlul foggy winds would arrive this afternoon.

But I expect the surge to pause for a while today at Monterey as it curves and fills up the hot Salinas Valley. Then it should pause again to set up a Monterey Eddy late this afternoon. Then overnight it will zoom up the coast with a brief pause to fill up the Hwy. 92 gap. Then it blasts up and through the Golden Gate.... according to my meteorological reasoning .

If I am wrong it will arrive late this afternoon.

Here is my forecast for tomorrow:

Fri, Jun 19 2020
The thermal trough over the coast develops into a rea low-pressure area extending from Sacramento to about 50 miles west of the Golden Gate and about 3000 feet vertically in the AM. This and NNW ocean winds create a large counter-clockwise spinning air mass and southerly coast winds from Big Sur to past Bodega. It now appears that this low pressure/eddy never fades which would make for very strong SSW winds in the mid Golden Gate to Larkspur to Brickyards/Peacock Gap to Davis Pt. zone. A bit weaker winds for Shimada Park. Rest of the Bay is largely bypassed.

Bottom Line: Bodega and Waddell SW/WNW sub-teens. Crissy north tower SSW low to mid 20's, TI Point Blunt upper-teens to low 20's. 3rd Ave weak SW. Pt. Isabel upper-teens to 20 and much stronger towards Shimada Park & Berkeley upper teens. Alameda mid-teens. Sherman PM upper-teens to 20 late afternoon.


Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



Bay marine surge atypical2.gif
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Last edited by windfind on Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1691

PostPosted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Below is an image showing the marine surge at 8AM today and how it interacts with some of the gaps in our coast range.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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WNDZRFR



Joined: 28 Mar 2000
Posts: 104
Location: Greater East Bay Area

PostPosted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Surge made it very nicely to PI all day today.

Such a strange sight - seeing fog again!

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ctuna



Joined: 27 Jun 1995
Posts: 993
Location: Santa Cruz Ca

PostPosted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Somehow the wind didn't make it to San Luis today.
Kind of looked like it was doing some thing around 1pm then stopped
didn't show any hint of returning till around 6pm .
By that time I was baked from the 90 degree plus heat.
About 6 people there you had to have 6.0 plus to be doing much.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1691

PostPosted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WNDZRFR wrote:
The Surge made it very nicely to PI all day today.

Such a strange sight - seeing fog again!


Hi Wndzrfr,

My 7am forecast had the wind being SSW rather than SW so hitting Shimada Park more than Pt. Isabel but my 11:30 AM update I had upped the Pt. Isabel winds above the upper-teens since we had SW flow. Really weird marine surge.

Quote:
Somehow the wind didn't make it to San Luis today.
Kind of looked like it was doing some thing around 1pm then stopped
didn't show any hint of returning till around 6pm .
By that time I was baked from the 90 degree plus heat.
About 6 people there you had to have 6.0 plus to be doing much.


Hi ctuna,

In the San Luis area, the marine surge was too SSW as it reached the Moss landing area. That made it much harder for the wind to make the sharp turn from the ocean to Pacheco Pass to San Luis. It was my mistake for not forecasting this since the data was right in front of me.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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ctuna



Joined: 27 Jun 1995
Posts: 993
Location: Santa Cruz Ca

PostPosted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will try again today .
The 3km forecast in the complete report had it going
up pretty substantially yesterday at 2pm . Every body
that was there had the same story foggy in Santa Cruz
lets go to San Luis . This prediction is seldom wrong.
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