2020 election--what does it mean?

[mac]

While the claim by Matty that this is the closest election ever is laughable, there are a number of puzzling aspects to this election. I spent some time this morning going over the results in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. The shifts in Arizona and Georgia are particularly dramatic, and may mean something long term. Here are a few take-aways that I get from the election.

1. High turnout elections usually mean big gains for Democrats. The expected turnout for 2020 is a little bit more than 66%, well over the 60.1% in 2016. Yet Republicans fared well, particularly down the ballot. It is obvious that Trump's fear campaign and rallies increased turnout among his base. It is less clear that they will continue to turn out in such high numbers. As an example, Luce County in Michigan turnout was 82.9%--dramatically higher than turnout in urban areas that gave Biden the nod. His ability to turn entertainment into political action is obviously the hallmark of the Trump era.

2. Polling accuracy continues to fall. The magnitude of Biden's victory was well below that predicted in polling. Some of this has been noted for years as cell phones replace land lines. Polling accuracy depends on statistically significant numbers sampled, and that those sampled are representative. For whatever reasons, conservatives are not accurately captured in polling for the past 2 presidential cycles.

3. Despite his overall underwater status, Trump improved significantly in his approval rating between July and the election, even as the pandemic began to rage out of control. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ It increased from 40.1% in late July to 44.7% by the election.

I'll give the vote margins for 2016 and 2020 below by state.

Wisconsin Trump won in 2016 by a little over 22,000 votes. Biden won in 2020 by a little over 20,000 votes.

Michigan. Trump won in 2016 by less than 11,000 votes. Biden won in 2020 by more than 46,000 votes.

Pennsylvania. Trump won in 2016 by a little more than 44,000 vote. Biden won in 2020 by a little more than 42,000 votes.

Georgia. Trump won in 2016 by more than 200,000 votes. Biden won in 2020 by a little over 10,000 votes.

Arizona. Trump won in 2016 by a little more than 90,000 votes. Biden won in 2020 by about 20,000 votes.

Texas does not yet seem in play, the margin for Trump was 808,000 in 2016 and 660,000 in 2020. But the changes in Georgia and Arizona are eye-opening.

I think the trend in North Carolina is also meaningful. Trump won by over 190,000 votes in 2016, and that margin was reduced to about 75,000 in 2020.

While Trump underperformed the GOP as a whole, I think they owe their success to his ability to get out the vote. Unlike 2018, where the popularity of the ACA and the Republican Party's effort to repeal it loomed large, Trump used hatred and fear to stir up a dramatic increase in Republican turnout. Would that he had done it with a positive message of what America could become, or a program that had actually benefited those left behind in today's economy.

[isobars]

That topic is one I'm watching closely. I want to see several respectable news analysts assess the impacts of the currently assumed outcome on people in my age, income, geographic, and other demographics. I have my own opinions and hopes, but want some focused professional input, too, instead of the usual partisan promises. The usual "Oh, you'll be fine" BS is no more meaningful in politics than it is in love, disease, finance, etc. I'd like to worry about everyone else, too, but have to begin closer to home.

[nw30]

And so it begins.
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/11/08/battleground-woes-gop-led-state-legislature-calls-emergency-session-over-voting-n2579682?
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We can't continue as a free country with over 70 million people having no trust in our election system. No matter what the outcome may be, this needs to be thoroughly investigated in all the states that are now in question, around five of them.
If the media were the ones who declared who won the election, that would mean that Al Gore was president for 37 days. Biden is on day 4 since the declaration, we have a long ways to go.

[mac]

[swchandler]

NW30, maybe you can explain the hypocrisy in eagerly accepting Republican wins in the election across the board while at the same time suggesting that Donald Trump's decisive and embarrassing loss was rooted in illegal votes counts. Both Democratic and Republican vote counts set new records overall.

Seems to me that you are lost in foolishness that doesn't add up and make sense. When it comes to counting ballots, you can't pick and choose what you want to happen. Trump lost fair and square, and sooner or later you'll have to accept that whether you like it or not.

[wsurfer]

Trumperick

The election would be rigged if I lost
So the mail-in ballots must be tossed
Count 'em if I can win
Lose 'em if they're for Biden
Let's burn every bridge I have crossed

[nw30]

[mac]

Sheep that follow Trump off every cliff.

[vientomas]

[vientomas]