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Wildfires and global warming
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A very reasonable article (in my opinion) about the west coast fire problems and solutions. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that things will change anytime soon.

https://www.city-journal.org/west-coast-fire-crisis
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks. A reasonable and balanced article. I agree with most of it—but it doesn’t mention the impact of bark beetles, or give any idea about how difficult controlled burns are to manage with current fuel levels.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

coboardhead wrote:
So, I’m wondering now if we need to be more proactive with removing fuels to try and keep what forests remain.

You are a smart guy..........I knew you would get there eventually! I suggest you read the article posted by Techno. It says exactly what he and I have been saying here to much derision and name calling........even a plaintive bleat that I am just a big old bully! Focus on the priority at hand.

...a range of factors—aside from climate—are making wildfires more deadly and more expensive. When scientists, the press, and policymakers [and old windsurfers] respond to every wildfire by talking almost exclusively about climate, those other aspects of fire policy get neglected.
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vientomas



Joined: 25 Apr 2000
Posts: 2343

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
coboardhead wrote:
So, I’m wondering now if we need to be more proactive with removing fuels to try and keep what forests remain.

You are a smart guy..........I knew you would get there eventually! I suggest you read the article posted by Techno. It says exactly what he and I have been saying here to much derision and name calling........even a plaintive bleat that I am just a big old bully! Focus on the priority at hand.

...a range of factors—aside from climate—are making wildfires more deadly and more expensive. When scientists, the press, and policymakers [and old windsurfers] respond to every wildfire by talking almost exclusively about climate, those other aspects of fire policy get neglected.


Hey Bully Boy! I don't recall prescribed burns as being part of your "management plan". Your plan was fire breaks was it not?
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jp5



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 3394
Location: OnUr6

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Mr. Climate Change...
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wsurfer



Joined: 17 Aug 2000
Posts: 1634

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That post need serious fact checking.

#WWGWHFT
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jpbassman wrote:
Hello Mr. Climate Change...


Just to prove that there are bigger assholes than Matty and mrgybe, assman posts this picture of a black man. Dog whistle? Plus utter bullshit.

Indeed, an arsonist was arrested for setting 32 fires. Michael Jarrod Bakker Bakkella--wait for it--a white man.

Asshole.

https://www.koin.com/news/crime/arson-suspect-indicted-on-32-charges-in-southern-oregon/#:~:text=PORTLAND%2C%20Ore.&text=The%20Jackson%20County%20Sheriff's%20Office,southern%20Oregon%20town%20of%20Phoenix.

650 fires started by lightning in California. Assman finds a fake picture of a black man and posts it. A Trump voter for sure.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
It says exactly what he and I have been saying here to much derision and name calling........even a plaintive bleat that I am just a big old bully! Focus on the priority at hand.

...a range of factors—aside from climate—are making wildfires more deadly and more expensive. When scientists, the press, and policymakers [and old windsurfers] respond to every wildfire by talking almost exclusively about climate, those other aspects of fire policy get neglected.


There is a distinction between reading for understanding and reading for validation. That distinction will apparently be lost on mrgybe forever.

This runs directly counter to mrgybe's claims:

Quote:
The emphasis on climate is not incorrect. Higher average temperatures are linked to longer fire seasons, and hotter, dryer conditions do appear to lead to larger fires. It is reasonable to assume that rising temperatures increase the risks of fire in Western landscapes.



The article, while persuasive about the prospects for short term solutions, avoids any discussion of the impact of climate caused changes in drought and beetle damage.

The other point of the article, well stated, is very difficult to address.

Quote:
As more Western residents leave cities for homes in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), it becomes harder to conduct prescribed burns. Residents complain, and the state’s air quality rules often shut down planned burning operations. Meanwhile, unplanned fires are encountering growing numbers of people and structures in their paths. That threat to lives and property puts pressure on firefighters to extinguish blazes that might otherwise roll harmlessly—in fact, helpfully—through uninhabited forests. And when fires do reach settled areas, the costs become catastrophic. Disaster researchers call this phenomenon the expanding bull’s-eye effect: even if the rate of fires stays the same, costs go up as people move in.

California and other western states have worked themselves into a vicious cycle: their forests are primed for disastrous fires, but increasing populations make it harder to conduct prescribed burns. The risks and potential costs go up every year. What can be done? One step would be to rethink how people live in the wildland-urban interface. Instead of focusing just on fire prevention, policymakers should plan for better fire resilience: helping communities and residents survive and recover from the fires that, sooner or later, are bound to arrive.


In California alone, according to insurance company estimates, there are 2 million homes in high risk fire areas. https://www.verisk.com/insurance/campaigns/location-fireline-state-risk-report/

This problem is common across the western US, with 151,000 homes in Oregon, 374,000 in Colorado, 160,000 in Washington, and 718,000 in Texas identified as high risk. That is only the tip of the iceberg--no estimates are available of the legal lots which have not yet been built on. Many of these homes were crafted to nestle into the beautiful environment--with shake roofs and cedar siding in forests. Our whole societal approach to fire risk (and flooding risk) has been magical thinking. The FEMA flood programs are over-subscribed, generating only about 1/3 of the annual costs in annual insurance premiums.

With most home purchases relying on Federally insured mortgages, it is possible to reform home loans to require resilience, and to require resilient rebuilding or cash out lots after major disasters. Unfortunately, very few in Congress have been willing to push for such reforms, the more typical approach is yelling and screaming by elected officials when new flood maps show properties at risk.


Last edited by mac on Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
coboardhead wrote:
So, I’m wondering now if we need to be more proactive with removing fuels to try and keep what forests remain.

You are a smart guy..........I knew you would get there eventually! I suggest you read the article posted by Techno. It says exactly what he and I have been saying here to much derision and name calling........even a plaintive bleat that I am just a big old bully! Focus on the priority at hand.

...a range of factors—aside from climate—are making wildfires more deadly and more expensive. When scientists, the press, and policymakers [and old windsurfers] respond to every wildfire by talking almost exclusively about climate, those other aspects of fire policy get neglected.


Mrgybe. Let me be clear.

Climate change is not the only cause for this fire season. Climate change exacerbates the problem with forests that burn. You did not comment on the article that I included a few days back where scientist are studying the damaged forests in Colorado. The issue I brought up is not that the forests are burning as they have for ions. The issue is that climate change may not allow the forest to come back the way they were before the fires or the insect infestations.

That's why I believe we should, artificially, try and preserve what we can of the forests even though I have never been a fan, in the past, of fire suppression. I feel that the funding should come, in part, from a carbon tax.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Funding is not the issue..........it's focus and prioritization. Your candidate just told us that the fires cost CA alone $50 billion in the last two years, so it just might make sense to push the priority of remediation efforts above high speed rail. However, probably worth checking old Joe's numbers.........he also just told us that 200 million have died from Coivid. Golly gosh! That's shocking! Up from his earlier estimate of 120 million Covid deaths, and even more than the 150 million he told us have died from gun violence.
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