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coboardhead
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 Posts: 4303
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Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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Mac
You threw a bunch of numbers out there that don’t mean anything unless you can also illustrate how the demand on those raw materials will increase if we go to a totally EV world. If we convert 1.4 billion autos to 300 mile range Tesla’s, do we have enough raw material? Citing reserves available, based on current use is meaningless.
Regarding the production of lithium in both Chile and Australia. Both regions are dry and lithium production takes a LOT of water. Isn’t that an issue? Or,
should I just take your word for it that it isn’t an issue because oil is bad?
I just want the data that shows we have the minerals to go electric and I want to know the environmental and social costs for going there. That’s all. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Posts: 5181
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Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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coboardhead wrote: | A smaller EV along with a larger efficient gasoline vehicle in the quiver might make a LOT of sense. |
An EV for short local trips and an ICE vehicle for longer trips and/ or hauling would make sense for many. However, hybrids make more sense to me, certainly for a one car household or for urban dwellers who don't have easy access to recharging (e.g. on-street parking). Extended power outages will leave those reliant on EVs very vulnerable. It is ironic that many of those who are pushing BEVs are also warning of increasing extreme weather events........the type of events that will knock the power out and will severely impact wind and solar output.
It's my guess that the hybrid model will be the way of the future, in electricity generation and in vehicles. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17751 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:27 am Post subject: |
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coboardhead wrote: | Mac
You threw a bunch of numbers out there that don’t mean anything unless you can also illustrate how the demand on those raw materials will increase if we go to a totally EV world. If we convert 1.4 billion autos to 300 mile range Tesla’s, do we have enough raw material? Citing reserves available, based on current use is meaningless.
Regarding the production of lithium in both Chile and Australia. Both regions are dry and lithium production takes a LOT of water. Isn’t that an issue? Or,
should I just take your word for it that it isn’t an issue because oil is bad?
I just want the data that shows we have the minerals to go electric and I want to know the environmental and social costs for going there. That’s all. |
Reasonable questions. I don't know the answer to them. I dug long enough to find that gybe's source was in fact a petroleum, funded source, and full of spin. It had no context, so I provided at least some.
I tried, unsuccessfully, to find a comparison of different energy sources normalized to million BTU's. My memory from several years ago is that conservation is the best investment--the lowest cost per BTU. This was the analysis that led to inclusion of conservation as an element of the stimulus bill under Obama in 2009--which you can remember mrgybe disparaging and the oil industry opposing. While I couldn't find the numbers that I remember for conservation, the numbers that I did find showed that natural gas has a cost per million BTU's about half of that of gasoline. In California, Harris Ranch ran a very successful program using natural gas rather than gasoline as a fuel. Lower air quality impacts to boot. Natural gas has pushed coal out of the hearing and electricity generation market. Of course Republicans have blamed that loss of market share of coal on Obama and Hillary Clinton--not on Dick Cheney. Uninformed voters bought it.
My objection was to the spin in the citation by mr buggy whip. Not surprised, but it's usually pretty easy to find out how he's spun the facts.
I'd love to find a credible source that compared the cost and total carbon emission burden per effective BTU for gasoline powered vs. the average electrical car. If I find one I'll post it--but I won't buy more nonsense from a Murdoch paper paid for by the Koch's or Exxon.
I think a carbon tax would get us to a better allocation between electric and other power plants, and to a reduction of CO2. I'm also not so worried about every car going electric; I think they are a transition and we will eventually see fuel cells and hydrogen power plants. I also think there is a place for gasoline powered vehicles where the population density is very low. Distances are greater and the population won't support the charging infrastructure. If increased demand for the minerals needed for batteries drive the cost up, I think it will make that happen more quickly. I actually trust the market--if you deal with the problems of externalities. That used to be a pretty standard conservative perspective. |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001 Posts: 4166
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:25 am Post subject: |
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Stats from the EPA:
For the US - 28% of Green House Gas is from transportation.
For the US - 59% of the above is from cars.
For the US - 16.5% Total GHG in the US from cars.
US produces 15% of the worlds GHG
US cars produce 2.4% of the worlds GHG.
So, how much will global warming be impacted if the US quickly moves to all electric cars, not forgetting that only 23% of the energy for charging the cars is from green sources, or 77% from polluting sources.
I am not opposed to EVs, but moving too fast accomplishes almost nothing. Currently, I have no interest in an EV, but as technology and batteries improve, maybe one day? However, I will probably die before it makes sense to buy an EV. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Posts: 5181
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:30 am Post subject: |
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Predictably, Berkeley dismisses any analysis that doesn't coincide with his biases. I repeat, the analysis I quoted was from the comments section of the WSJ. If he believes the statistics are inaccurate, let him rebut them with facts, not name calling. Perhaps he doesn't believe this either.......
More than half of the world’s lithium resources lies beneath the salt flats in the Andean regions of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, where indigenous quinoa farmers and llama herders must now compete with miners for water in one of the world’s driest regions. Lithium mining requires huge amounts of groundwater to pump out brines from drilled wells, and some estimates show that almost 2 million litres of water are needed to produce one ton of lithium.
In Chile’s Salar de Atacama, lithium and other mining activities consumed 65% of the water, causing groundwater depletion, soil contamination and other forms of environmental degradation, forcing local communities to abandon ancestral settlements.
Or this.....
Nearly 50% of world cobalt reserves are in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounts for over two-thirds of global production of the mineral. About 20% of cobalt sourced from the central African nation comes from artisanal mines, where some 40,000 children work in extremely dangerous conditions, according to UNICEF, the UN’s children's agency.
The dust from excavation may contain toxic metals including uranium that are linked to health problems such as respiration diseases and birth defects.
The environmental risks are just as worrying. Cobalt mine sites may contain sulphur minerals that can generate sulfuric acid when exposed to air and water. This process, known as acid mine drainage, can devastate rivers, streams and aquatic life for hundreds of years.
https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-pay-environmental-cost-electric-car-batteries |
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J64TWB
Joined: 24 Dec 2013 Posts: 1685
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001 Posts: 4166
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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J64TWB wrote: | https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/child-miners-electric-cars-work/ |
Which states:
Quote: | What's True
Child labor has been used in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Cobalt is a chemical element used to make rechargeable batteries.
What's False
However, cobalt is not used exclusively for electric car batteries. This chemical element is also used to make the rechargeable batteries in phones, tablets, and laptops. Electric car manufacturers, such as Tesla and BMW, have started to use ethically sourced cobalt from areas outside of the DRC. |
With the increased need for cobalt for EVs, the labor issues will likely grow. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17751 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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mrgybe wrote: | Predictably, Berkeley dismisses any analysis that doesn't coincide with his biases. I repeat, the analysis I quoted was from the comments section of the WSJ. If he believes the statistics are inaccurate, let him rebut them with facts, not name calling. Perhaps he doesn't believe this either.......
ws/developing-countries-pay-environmental-cost-electric-car-batteries |
Another dodge, another name-calling complaint about name-calling. Mr buggy whip did not cite his source, which comes verbatim from the Manhattan Institute from last June. The Koch's are major funders of that organization. As I said, the numbers are taken out of context, and without context are intended, and serve, as propaganda for the oil industry. Could a better context be provided? Without doubt--but don't expect one from the oil apologists.
One of the shortcomings of the screeds about batteries is any understanding that we are in the early stages of battery technology development. The fiscal pages of most newspapers are filled with news about different approaches. Anyone who thinks that batteries will remain as they are now, with so much investment in electrical cars happening in so many countries, probably should keep their shares of Amazon and Apple. Things will change. But talking points will still be posted. |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9122 Location: at a computer
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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techno900 wrote: | J64TWB wrote: | https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/child-miners-electric-cars-work/ |
Which states:
Quote: | What's True
Child labor has been used in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Cobalt is a chemical element used to make rechargeable batteries.
What's False
However, cobalt is not used exclusively for electric car batteries. This chemical element is also used to make the rechargeable batteries in phones, tablets, and laptops. Electric car manufacturers, such as Tesla and BMW, have started to use ethically sourced cobalt from areas outside of the DRC. |
With the increased need for cobalt for EVs, the labor issues will likely grow. |
The counter is that Tesla, BMW , Audi, all have strict standards which Glencore will adhere to... |
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swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993 Posts: 10588
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Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:32 pm Post subject: |
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techno900,
So, do you believe that increased battery manufacture will never lead to any improvements in cobalt mining, battery manufacture, or any decrease in the negative affects and dangers to humans involved in its extraction of minerals and their refining?
Maybe for someone like you that is politically against creating sensible rules and regulations in business and industry that might affect its corporate profit potential, you've just accepted a position that nothing should change, and that no important improvements of any kind are ever possible over time.
Sometimes it hard for me to believe that you were actually involved in the education of young folks. Where's your vision?
Last edited by swchandler on Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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