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bmmiller
Joined: 23 May 2007 Posts: 110
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Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:06 am Post subject: End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey |
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Attention all Pro and Gold subscribers,
As we progress into this El Niño winter, please consider taking a few minutes to provide us with your input into our Pro forecasts by completing the End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey. Find it here: https://forms.gle/rM9b1XFs6aP8Spbv8
Thanks for making the 2023 season great!
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jse
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Joined: 17 Apr 1995 Posts: 1460 Location: Maui
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Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:39 pm Post subject: Re: End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey |
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bmmiller wrote: | Attention all Pro and Gold subscribers,
As we progress into this El Niño winter, please consider taking a few minutes to provide us with your input into our Pro forecasts by completing the End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey. Find it here: https://forms.gle/rM9b1XFs6aP8Spbv8
Thanks for making the 2023 season great! |
I cannot complete the survey because the selection list of locales does not include Hawaii
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1905
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Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey |
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Quote: | I cannot complete the survey because the selection list of locales does not include Hawaii |
Hi Steve,
We don't do human forecasts for Maui, hence the lack of a survey. My impression has been that there was not much of a market for wind forecasts since you can see the white caps from many roads and locals can usually recognize the wind patterns.
I would think the need for forecasts would be decreasing since wind foilers can find action from 10-30+ knots and even if you get skunked you get a beautiful day at the beach.
So, do you think a human forecast would make business sense?
Mike Godsey
Weatherflow
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999 Posts: 20936
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Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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Signing in to anything, especially something I use only once or twice a year like my Google acct (I guess I have one), is so much hassle that I seldom bother. Anyone who has a Google acct at his/her/its fingertips is welcome to copy and paste this on Benjamin's survey, with or without attribution. My response would go something like the rest of this post:
Researching the forecasts (I consult 6 to 10 models and interpretations*), loading up enough food for a day or three, driving, rigging a few sails and boards, squirming into a freaking neck-entry wetsuit, and running that whole video in reverse eats up a day not even counting sailing time. (Never mind that a round trip costs me $100 in fuel.)
* I have yet to find any one source sufficiently and consistently accurate to base decisions on it. Every free or paid source wins and loses enough, and I learn enough from each source, that I'm not betting my go/no go decisions on any one source. Sometimes the amateur forecasters beat the pants off the pros, sometimes the pros win.
The most frustrating thing I often see is iW Pro's frequent failure to double check the agreement between their numbers and their words, which sometimes, arguably often, conflict dramatically. Their most useful forecasting contribution is their warnings about northerly wind cants that at least mess with, often outright destroy, the wind quality at many sites. Swimming my gear 500 yards from Roosevelt to catch 30 knots and 5 feet of swell on the Arlington side is no longer the "fun" it once was.
By far the most use I get out of iW is real time wind speeds on the water. Live data tell me far more about whether and what to rig -- sometimes even whether to make the drive -- than a dozen prognostications. Yet after years of begging for a sensor at Roosevelt, one of the Columbia Gorge's premiere launch sites, all we get is the Arlington sensor -- biased by an adjacent cliff and 10-20 knots, 20-30 critical degrees in direction, and 100 yards of dangerously dense weeds distant. I OFTEN see full-sized guys eagerly rigging -- sometimes even launching -- 3.x sails and little sinkers -- at Roosevelt when there's literally not enough wind for a 6.2 and a floater. At best, they just wear themselves out. At worst, they give up, go home, and miss a great day. Either way, a realistically placed sensor would help significantly.
How about raiding your corporate coffee fund and taking better care of the recreational demographic that gave you such a shot in the arm during your corporate infancy?
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prevett
Joined: 25 Jun 1997 Posts: 65
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Posted: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Mike
> We don't do human forecasts for Maui, hence the lack of a survey.
I agree with this. The computer models provided on Iwindsurf do a good job for predicting the wind here on Maui for near, medium, and long term.
Bob
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gerritt
Joined: 06 May 1998 Posts: 632 Location: Redwood City, CA
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Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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Done and not that difficult via Google. Sorry Iso, resistance is futile!
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jse
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Joined: 17 Apr 1995 Posts: 1460 Location: Maui
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Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:24 pm Post subject: Re: End-of-Season Pro Forecast Survey |
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windfind wrote: |
So, do you think a human forecast would make business sense?
Mike Godsey
Weatherflow |
Thanks Mike, no, human forecasts aren't that important here, i just wanted to complete the survey.
Since moving here my attitude has changed significantly with regards to wind forcasting and TOW. Before in the Bay Area FOMO was a big thing and it always stressed me out - drive 1.5 hours across the bay worring if the wind would be there when I got there. Or having the attitude of "get it now, it may not be here tomorrow".
Now if my wife says "Do you want to go swimming?" and it's windy, I say "Yes, dear, I can just sail tomorrow". We have a good forecast system here outside of IW by locals that are more inclined to interpret technical weather data and post it where we can see it.
Steve
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cbknap
Joined: 03 Jun 1997 Posts: 373
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Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:14 am Post subject: Forecast time change |
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Mike et al: Thanks for reading the survey results and changing the forecast back to 7:30!
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1905
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Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2023 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: | Thanks Mike, no, human forecasts aren't that important here, i just wanted to complete the survey. |
Hi Steve,
Damn, didn't you get my IM? You were supposed to say Maui desperately needs my subhuman forecasts.
That way, I could convince Weatherflow that we needed a Maui forecast.
And then, I could write off lots of vacations to Maui as vital business expenses.
Oh well, Baja beckons!
Mike
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