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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5467
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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 Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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To you wife and best friend, Thank you for being there, for taking
Care of those in need. I hope they have the equipment necessary to precaution , and remain healthy.
This quote and thought from you ##
Perhaps we should all remember that now is not the time to whine about our windsurfing deprivation and the unfairness of social distancing. I think those on the front lines would have a certain amount of contempt.
###
Based on the number of threads , North West, South West, some Eastern that contain closures or where it’s not closed , locked gates , it’s far from the case, the opposite is being vocalized, I can do this because it doesn’t say that I can’t.
The reference to VietNam dead, is interesting .
Brings up too many possible discussions, fulfilling the obligation of citizenship, in a very unpopular war.
VS not complying with a easy enough stay at home order.
Contempt , good word, disregard for something that should be taken into account.
The more advanced reader will note no to little support for the stay at home, except essential travel orders .
Pity.
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westender
Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 1288
Location: Portland / Gorge
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| Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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You think there's any doubt in their minds?? Who doesn't have sailing buddies from far away? Probably smaller crowds. Just about everybody is in the high risk group??
| vientomas wrote: | | This raises an interesting issue. As you know, Hood River and surrounding areas have a significant number of second homes owned by people who only occupy them during the "windy season". Are they going to be considered to be locals for launching purposes? |
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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5467
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:31 am Post subject: |
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| westender wrote: | You think there's any doubt in their minds?? Who doesn't have sailing buddies from far away? Probably smaller crowds. Just about everybody is in the high risk group??
| vientomas wrote: | | This raises an interesting issue. As you know, Hood River and surrounding areas have a significant number of second homes owned by people who only occupy them during the "windy season". Are they going to be considered to be locals for launching purposes? |
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Lost me on this
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windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1905
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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Vientomas: | Quote: | | This raises an interesting issue. As you know, Hood River and surrounding areas have a significant number of second homes owned by people who only occupy them during the "windy season". Are they going to be considered to be locals for launching purposes? |
Hi Gang,
Hmmm, interesting questoin but before I start... if science bores you just skip all this and go the COVID graphics below. And since there is a segment of the population that now ignores science unless it fits into their political beliefs I have included graphs for the last great pandemic to show what happens if you end distancing too early. (if you are so biased that you also ignore history… god save us. )
So here goes: Since in the real world I used to teach college classes on neurobiology that covered basic immunology I have a smidgeon of knowledge about epidemiology.
So rather than giving you my opinion about moving across states to a second home I will give you some basic data and let you draw your own conclusion.
Worldwide research, to date, suggests that a person with COVID-19, WITHOUT social distancing, infects a median of 5-6 people (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article). This number is called the R0 (the fact that the actual infection rate is probably much higher does not change the usefulness of the following)
R0, pronounced “R naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection and the COVID-19 pandemic is easily treated and the virus will decline in an area and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing COVID infection causes one new infection and the disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak and hospital treatment is manageable.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new COVID infection. The disease will be transmitted rapidly between people, and there may be an outbreak that overwhelms hospitals.
So scientists in every country, state and county have been going over all the available data for for COVID to calculate daily the R0. See USA states animation below.
When a state's R0 is steady well below 1.0 for a couple of weeks it is scientifically reasonable to gradually phase-out Social Distancing since fewer and fewer people are being infected. Ohio may be an example of such a state.
If a state is above 1.0 you run the risk of a new spike in the epidemic and more economic fallout since the number of people getting infected will increase fast and the only way to control it would be to reinstitute serious Social Distancing.
(Unfortunately, things get complicated since a state with an average R0 below 1.0 may have cities or counties with an R0 way above 1.0. eg. Florida. This is why a county by county phasing-out of social distancing would be wise.
Thie first animation below shows the R0 for every state as of April 25. Notice that 11 states have gotten R0 below 1.0. And if you look at the estimate range for each state (shaded area) about 20 other states are within striking distance of 1.0. About 10 states are way above 1.0 where the pandemic could still grow fast.
At the end of the animation, you can see the graphs for California and Oregon. Can you see why California is still moving slowly in opening up the state while Oregon is opening a bit faster? If this Oregon curve continues to go drop towards 1.0 or lower we will can expect a faster end of the distancing. BUT, since both area above R0 there could still be a surge later in the year.
But what happens to R0 if we just say screw it and everyone ignores social distancing when the value is well above 1.0. Simple R0 math says the virus, with lots of people closer that 6 feet, will have lots of new hosts and will spreads rapidly. (I am ignoring for the moment that chance that the virus is vulnerable to warmer dryer weather and the natural distancing that occurs as more people spend more time outside in the summer. Since the last several months were winter in the southern hemisphere and COVID spread anyway we can not count on summer as an ally.)
The historical graphics below tell what happened when social distancing was stopped too early during the 1918 pandemic. Time and time again in cities and countries around the world people got tired of distancing and the economic fallout. And looking at the graphs you can see the 2nd. surge just prolonged the distancing and economic disaster.
But since many people relate to stories more than graphs here is the story for one city.:
Interestingly enough, the USA was in this same social distancing dilemma during the 1918 pandemic. Some cities, like Phildelphia barely adopted social distancing and paid a horrendous cost. (see bottom graph) Others like San Francisco were early to adopt very strict distancing and mask and initially saw a much lower death rate.
But San Francisco, like many cities and countries, saw a wave of people who were impatient with the distancing, masks and the the impact on the economy. As more and more people questioned the advice of health authorities San Francisco officials caved into the demands to reopen the City.
SFGATE: "The outbreak began on Sept. 24, 1918, when a Chicago man arrived in the city carrying the virus. Three weeks later, 2,000 San Franciscans were infected. 45,000 became sick with the flu. During the fall of 1918, everyone in San Francisco was required to cover their mouth and nose in public; citizens were told to avoid crowded spaces and full streetcars. In October, schools, movie theaters and other places of public entertainment were closed. Church services and even court proceedings were conducted outdoors"
Microsoft News: Then…. "It was Nov. 21, 1918, and San Francisco residents gathered in the streets to celebrate... the end of an onerous ordinance that shut down the city.
A blaring whistle alerted gratified residents across the city and, as the San Francisco Chronicle reported at the time, "the sidewalks were strewn with the relics of a torturous month," despite warnings from the health department ... residents flocked to theaters, restaurants and other public spaces… Barely two weeks after the celebratory removal of masks, new flu cases were reported. Five thousand new flu cases would surface in December 1918 alone.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/san-francisco-had-the-1918-flu-under-control-and-then-it-lifted-the-restrictions/ar-BB13cnCp
Mike Godsey
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jota
Joined: 28 Feb 2001
Posts: 205
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks as always Mike.
As for the question of socially-spaced parking reducing overall availability, it would be really helpful and considerate if people rig, sail, and leave, rather than rig, sail, and hangout to visit and have a beer and enjoy the afterglow of a good session.
That might be a major mindset adjustment, I realize, but this is temporary, and there is a pandemic, and it would really help others to safely enjoy the river just as you want to.
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U2U2U2
Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5467
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Hey gang, not going to quote all those graphs, hopefully you can follow:
Ahh, you quote the locals question by pasting it then say before you address it, you have these other considerations, then state below
###
So rather than giving you my opinion about moving across states to a second home I will give you some basic data and let you draw your own conclusion
##
Then post graphs that have zero to do with locals. Conclusion based on past pandemics.
I think that your post is a warning to not let the flood gates open , based on past history.
As far as locals, they will sort it out, nicely or not.
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riggs
Joined: 11 Jul 2001
Posts: 9
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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In the CDC report for 2018-19. 35.5 million people contracted the common flu. Out of those 35.5 million, 16.5 million went to a health provider. A 149,000 people died from the common flu that year. It was the longest flu season in 10 years.
Yes, this COVID 19 has moved fast and there are no meds or vaccine.........
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riggs
Joined: 11 Jul 2001
Posts: 9
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Then added to the recent reply 2018-19 flu, H1N1 there 490,000 hospitalizations.
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westender
Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 1288
Location: Portland / Gorge
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| Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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Jota, we can dream. If you rig, sail and leave people will think you're anti social.
Been thinking about getting a huge RV to reserve our spot. Sailors vs socializers. 
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jgda
Joined: 19 Jul 1999
Posts: 133
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| Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:41 am Post subject: |
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I talked to the Washington Park folks and also am on their hiking mailing list. "Local" means anyplace you can easily drive to and go home in a day. So yes, that includes folks from Oregon, including pdx. As far as parking, I don't think people need to park 6' apart. What matters is whether people are 6' feet apart. You simply wait in your car for a passenger to exit before you get out as a driver. Same thing getting in and out of the water. I think if we all follow this and wear a mask when not sailing (which I think is going to become mandatory), the powers to be will leave the sites open and we can get a much needed mental health boost.
I also think that there will be fewer folks who are not local coming to the gorge this summer, in particular with camping shut down.
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